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Timing of autumn election 'atrocious' for North's parties
Suzanne Breen

 


A WESTMINSTER election was the last thing the North's parties wanted, but the increasing likelihood Gordon Brown will go to the polls in late October or early November has taken them all by surprise.

Normally, the DUP and Sinn Fein are better organised than any party on these islands, with manifestos agreed and candidates selected well in advance. This time it's different. They're busy settling into the new Stormont administration and drawing up a programme for government.

Candidates were yesterday rushing to have election photographs taken.

"The timing is atrocious for us, " says a DUP figure who is usually invigorated by elections.

The consensus on so much at Stormont makes for less exciting politics. "We could be weeks away from an election and we have nothing to argue over, " complains another DUP figure.

Undoubtedly, a few sham fights will be staged.

Despite the changed times, Sinn Fein and the DUP should perform strongly and retain their existing seats. The loss of any hardline support for both parties should be more than compensated by new, middle-class, moderate voters.

Potentially, the most interesting aspect of the election could be the emergence of a panunionist pact. Nothing is agreed but both senior DUP and Ulster Unionist sources said they were seriously interested in reaching an accommodation in several constituencies.

The most important are South Belfast and Fermanagh-South Tyrone. A single unionist candidate would definitely unseat SDLP MP Alasdair McDonnell, a surprise victor last time round on just 32% of the vote.

The other MP at risk is Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew (38%) in Fermanagh-South Tyrone where the combined unionist vote is 47%. However, facing such a challenge, Gildernew would surely win enough votes from a weak SDLP candidate, Tommy Gallagher (15%), to retain her seat. Her profile has been raised as agriculture minister and her friendly, outgoing manner means she doesn't alienate moderate nationalist voters.

In both South Belfast and Fermanagh-South Tyrone, the DUP is ahead of the Ulster Unionists but any deal would necessitate the DUP stepping aside in one constituency. That's likely to be Fermanagh-South Tyrone, the least winnable seat, where the DUP's Arlene Foster might reluctantly opt out of the race.

The DUP is also considering parachuting Diane Dodds, who lost her Shankill Assembly seat in March, into South Belfast. Going to the polls swiftly means limited time for the DUP and the UUP to reach an election pact and the SDLP will be desperately hoping negotiations fail.

South Belfast's loss would be disastrous for the party, reducing its Westminster representation to two MPs.

In Foyle, Mark Durkan should comfortably see off the Sinn Fein challenger, who is tipped to be Brighton bomber and ex-beauty queen Martina Anderson. In South Down, SDLP MP Eddie McGrady (72) is likely to stand again because the party leadership is unsure that colleague Margaret Ritchie would defeat Sinn Fein's Caitriona Ruane.

The Rev Ian Paisley (81), who was widely expected to retire from Westminster politics, has said he will contest his North Antrim seat again.

The most bitter unionist battle could be in Upper Bann, where DUP MP David Simpson could face UUP deputy leader Danny Kennedy, who normally stands in Newry and Armagh.

Anti-agreement unionists are likely to challenge the DUP in several constituencies. They're unlikely to win any seats but their strongest showing could be in Upper Bann, where sources predict around 2,000 votes.




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