September 16, South America
WITH commodity prices booming, there has rarely been more opportunity to invest in resource rich South America. Amish-like religious communities have grown rich on soya beans. For the first time banks advertise savings accounts in euro.
Despite all the hype about Africa, significantly more oil and gas has been found in South America. Yet 60% of the potential area remains unexplored. Such work conducted was conducted at lower energy prices . . . bypassing many discoveries. Venezuela's heavy oil reserves alone are greater, in energy content, than all of Saudi Arabia's conventional oil.
The markets have been spooked by resource nationalism in Venezuela, Bolivia and Argentina. But this trend is not universal: other countries, particularly Colombia and Peru, have had investor friendly reforms, now offering a combination of upside under attractive terms.
But logistics are challenging: the only way to get to Santa Cruz, is via Paris, Caracas and Lima . . . and then back via Lima, Sao Paulo and Frankfurt!
September 17, Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Santa Cruz is again relaxed, turbulence subsided after the election of Bolivia's first indigenous government in 500 years. But passport control is tighter; for the first time I'm asked do I have a work visa.
It's uplifting to see Indians sitting in the hotel receptions.
When I first visited, the only native people were cleaners and drivers. It feels stranger to hear Venezuelan and even Cuban accents. Previously, the only burly young foreigners had American accents.
While waiting at Caracas airport, we parked beside an Iranair jumbo . . . apparently there are daily flights via Damascus! The Iranian President is following me to Bolivia next week.
Bizarrely, the US Drugs Enforcement Administration continues its work . . . even training operatives in the Bolivian jungle. Congress accepts that Bolivia is in compliance though coca production again rises. Bureaucracy has its own momentum.
Everyone wants an easy life.
September 18, Bolivian negotiations
Bolivia is South America's least developed country. As when I first visited in 1986, Bolivia remains a challenging place to do business. Yet it has hydrocarbon promise and markets. But political uncertainty produced by nationalisation fears deters investment.
Economic activity is disrupted by social unrest resulting from centuries of economic, political, and social inequality. The election of an indigenous president combined with rising resource nationalism worldwide helped to increase investor uncertainty. Unfortunately, private . . . and particularly foreign investment . . . is scapegoated. Ironically, demand for traditional exports is strong and prices high. Were it not for economic and political uncertainty, investment would now be booming. The greater the uncertainty, the higher the return demanded by international investors.
We take a long-term view, as elsewhere. We employ only Bolivian staff and where possible local contractors. This cushioned us from the worst effects of the mooted fiscal changes. Yet everyone is affected by price controls, delays in accessing new markets and uncertainty over title and fiscal terms.
During his campaign, populist President Morales pledged to nationalise natural resources, move away from market-oriented economic policies and empower Bolivia's indigenous population.
Such changes are no more welcome than ratcheting up of effective taxes elsewhere.
Nonetheless, with new contracts now signed, the rules of the game are clearer. The worst fears have not come to pass. Latin America's approach to international investment has experienced such cycles before: in the past, state control has not led to efficient development.
Eventually will come deregulation, in turn leading to investment, as during 19952000. We can work within this framework. Eventually the environment will again become more hospitable.
September 26, Peru
Difficulties elsewhere in Latin America brought capital and entrepreneurs to businessfriendly Peru.
During the 1990s our technical teams studied Peruvian projects but the economic terms then available were unattractive. Discoveries were sometimes abandoned as a consequence.
But policy-makers learn: the prospects were transformed by 2005. Effective government delivered growth, peace and prosperity. Nuanced and attractive economic terms, together with higher export prices and improved infrastructure, made Peru attractive. After a lag, came a flood of new investors. We slipped in before the crowd.
Peru is also a destination for Irish visitors: some 30,000 Irish people will visit this year . . . versus 50,000 from Britain.
They come for the experience, so Peruvians protect their environment. That slows activity, since developers must carry out exhaustive consultation and studies.
We regularly visit 14 communities located close to our jungle project to satisfy any concerns. Representatives of 52 indigenous communities attended our workshops . . .some paddling by canoe for up to 10 hours to attend.
It's important anywhere to establish and maintain good relations with local people.
When international investors start on the wrong foot and popular sentiment is aroused, it's hard to calm anxieties.
Apparently a leftist Colombian priest is agitating against development, arguing that poverty keeps people close to God. He wouldn't meet us, but the local nuns and congregation seem more interested in medical help to cut infant mortality.
September 21, Sao Paulo
Boarding a packed Lufthansa flight, I congratulated my neighbour on getting more leg-room than me. He answered in German and then English. An entrepreneur from the Germanic south of Brazil, it turns out his grandfather had been an Belfast employee of British Tobacco with my mother's maiden name . . . albeit spelt in Portuguese. His mother had even been sent to boarding school in Ireland. He was now flogging furniture in Russia!
We ended up debating Alan Ruddock's book on Michael O'Leary . . . not the first time Ryanair interrupted my slumber.
September 24, Today FM
Matt Cooper questions me on Rockall, a 23-metre high rock between Ireland, Scotland, Iceland and the Faroes.
The name is Gaelic but title is unclear.
The only permanent residents are periwinkles. Uninhabited rocks don't have their own continental shelf or economic zone. The rules don't support Ireland's claim to the rock itself. However the surrounding sea-bed does have thin continental material, so together with Britain we can claim the area and divide it.
Ireland has strong negotiators but a weak military.
Sensibly, the Irish and British delegations to the Law of the Sea agreed to ignore the rock in defining their boundary.
This extended our area seawards to 200 miles and hopefully soon to 500 miles.
Ironically, the most prospective 'Rockall trough' seems to lie on the Irish side of the boundary.
Though tempting to play the Wolfe Tones ballad, the smart approach is to cut a deal. Scotland and Ireland have a common interest in extending our economic zones.
Otherwise, as Borges said of the Malvinas, we'd be like 'two bald men fighting over a comb'.
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