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Dump property, buy shares, says Bank of Ireland
Maxim Kelly



HIGH net worth individual investors are being advised by Bank of Ireland private banking to reduce their exposure to property and buyout funds and instead move more heavily to equities. In a presentation last Friday, head of private banking Kevin Quinn argued that Irish equities are seriously undervalued, noting that current Irish price-toearnings ratios were last seen in the 2002 slowdown following the 11 September, 2001 terror attacks and global recession.

With property going out of fashion, big companies with little debt . . . and little exposure to recent volatility in credit markets . . .look a better bet to produce returns.

Bank of Ireland's private banking division is advising clients to shift holdings to a balance of 20 to 25% of investments in property, with 40 to 50% in equity. It expects fund movement for market rebalancing to come from hedge funds, small caps, and private equity investors if there is a flight to quality.

"We're not necessarily saying today is the bottom of the market because we do believe it is going to continue to be volatile, but we think that at these levels the equity markets represent very substantial value and we're forecasting that you'd be looking at least 15 to 20% net gain over the next 12 to 18 months. . .

when turmoil settles down and international investors in particular see where Irish stocks are vis-a-vis international comparaters, they're going to see a major dislocation and we are going to see them come back into the market, " said Mark Cunningham, managing director of Bank of Ireland's private banking unit.

This flight to quality will ultimately benefit large businesses with solid balance sheets rather than highly leveraged operations with a lot of debt on their books. In an ironic twist since the markets last took a serious blow during the dot-com bubble of 2002, it now seems the big tech stocks would seem a possible target for investment. Irish companies such as Iona Technologies could attract investor interest in this environment, and Iona's managing director Kevin Melia recently said the firm was holding on to $50m cash in the bank . . . not as an acquisitions war chest, but more as a marker to signify financial security and long term viability to its clients.




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