GALWAY: the last stronghold of the Progressive Democrats.
One TD, one senator, five councillors, two town councillors and two members of Udaras mightn't sound like much, but for a party that was almost wiped out in May's general election, it certainly qualifies as fertile territory.
The worry in the party, though, is that with Fianna Fail casting covetous glances in their direction, perhaps the PDs' only remaining strength could yet become their biggest weakness.
It's an open secret in the party that approaches have been made by Fianna Fail to PD councillors in the county, with sources also stating that Galway West TD Noel Grealish was sounded out by a senior Fianna Fail figure since the general election.
There is enormous admiration for the Galway organisation within the party for having bucked the national trend.
But there is also some uneasiness about the 'Westies', as they have become known by insiders. It is muttered that they are too focused on their own constituency and are keeping their options open, particularly the option of relocating to Fianna Fail in the future. Grealish's equivocal responses to questioning about his and the PDs' future on RTE Radio 1's Today with Pat Kenny a couple of weeks ago have caused widespread irritation throughout the party.
"Any party in the position of the PDs needs to know that all its people are committed. The bottom line is that either they're committed or not. It can't be death by a thousand cuts, " one party source said.
However, Galway figures dismiss fears of a mass migration to Fianna Fail. "No councillor will go anywhere at the moment, " said one party figure from the county, stressing that he didn't join the PDs for the sake of it but because he believed strongly in their philosophy and values.
"They don't want to be seen as the people who collapsed the PDs, " added a party source from outside Galway, who agreed nothing was likely to happen in the short term.
But there is little doubt the natives are getting restless. The next few months will be crucial in deciding whether or not the ailing party has any kind of future. In the wake of the disastrous general election, there was much talk within the PDs about how the local and Euro elections in 2009 would represent a last chance of resurrection. But four months on, there is a feeling that the PDs are drifting aimlessly and now some party figures are privately questioning whether the organisation will actually survive to fight those elections.
"The key question is, will the party have the discipline and resources to hold together until then? If one person goes, they'll scatter. They are all getting itchy, " said one close observer.
The whole leadership question is central to the party's future. The committee set up to look at this issue recently recommended opening up the leadership to all members of the parliamentary party and senators. That clearly points to popular senator Fiona O'Malley taking over as leader. Neither of the party's two TDs wants the job, Ciaran Cannon has been in the Seanad only a few weeks, while there are no obvious candidates from council ranks.
However, there is also an emerging view within the party that wants Mary Harney to stay on as titular leader, backed up by a deputy leader/director of organisation . . . most likely O'Malley . . . who would be charged with reinvigorating the party and ultimately taking over as leader in a couple of years. Highlyrespected Galway city councillor Declan McDonnell is one of those advocating such an approach.
"We need Mary Harney as our political leader, " he says simply. McDonnell stresses that he has enormous regard for the other candidates but that, given the party's difficulties, it cannot afford to do without the enormous respect that Harney still commands among the electorate.
McDonnell also stresses that there would be no question of Harney having to do the hard graft of rebuilding the organisation, driving around the country to chase potential candidates and so on.
That work could be done by others, he says. This view is echoed outside Galway.
"Regardless of who leads the party, Mary Harney is going to be the senior parliamentarian, " said another senior figure. "She will certainly have to lead us in the Oireachtas or in parliament. For starters, there is the practical issue that the recipient of the leaders' allowance has to be a TD."
McDonnell remains passionate about the PDs, arguing strongly that they still have a lot to offer the country. But he is also realistic about what lies ahead, accepting that the party at least has to hold its own in the local elections. In that regard, he says, the next six months will be crucial.
But while the logic of his argument in relation to Mary Harney staying on is impeccable, there is one major stumbling block. Harney does not want the job.
Her loyalty to and sense of responsibility for the party is unquestioned, but her main . . . perhaps her sole . . . focus now is on delivering health reform. And, after delivering so much for the PDs over the past two decades, everybody accepts that she owes the party nothing. Nobody expects her to contest the next general election and, though it will be a while yet before the vacancy comes up, she would be seen as a potential candidate to fill the position of European commissioner (assuming, of course, that she wants the job). The worry for the PDs is that the whole leadership issue is dragging on, and more questions than answers remain about what will happen.
"There is criticism at the lack of leadership in the party, " one insider told the Sunday Tribune. "But it is not directed at Mary, more at the void that exists. We seem to be as far away as ever from having a leader."
The PDs insist that the issue will be sorted out in the next couple of months.
It certainly needs to be. With Christmas around the corner, it will be just 18 months to the local elections . . . not much time for a party organisation that needs to be completely overhauled. It could be a long winter for the Progressive Democrats.
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