He was probably right. Almost everything has to go perfectly for a horse to win a big race but if there is even one minor chink in the armour then things can go pearshaped pretty damn quick. There are potential chinks to be found everywhere: the jockey's performance, the state of the going, the distance, the horse's health, the form of the opposition and, above all, luck.

With such a long list to choose from it shouldn't be too difficult for us to find a reason why Authorized will not win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Paris this afternoon. The Peter Chapple-Hyam trained three-year old is even money favourite for Europe's premier middle-distance contest so it could be lucrative if we can find a way to get him beaten.

The reason probably won't be the jockey though. Frankie Dettori picked up the plum ride on Authorized earlier in the year when the staying three-year-olds from the Godolphin stable turned out to be very moderate. These days Dettori doesn't chase the likes of Jamie Spencer and Seb Saunders up and down Britain in search of jockey's championships but when he has his game face on in the big races his focus is still fresh and sharp. He knows this race well having won it three times already, so it is hard to see Authorized getting beaten from the saddle.

And the ground is unlikely to stop him either. There has been some rain in the Paris area this week and the going is likely to be on the softer side of good, but this will not present a problem. Authorized has already won on most variants from heavy to good and he looks to be one of those rare horses that has the versatility to handle whatever the elements throw at a course.

The distance too, looks to be right up his street. A son of the 1999 Arc winner, Montjeu, he always looked like he would stay a mile and a half and he proved it emphatically when he came clear at the end of a fastrun race in the Epsom Derby. Since then he has won the Juddmonte International at York over a shorter distance indicating that, as well as stamina, he possesses the crucial tactical speed that will be needed to stay out of trouble in what is usually a rough race.

But what about his wellbeing?

There is no way to be really certain about a horse's health until he actually runs and the Arc is normally the race that finds the bottom of a horse after a long hard campaign, as both Nijinski, Shergar and a host of others have found to their cost.

Today is Authorized's fifth start of the season . . . not excessive compared to Rail Link who won last year on his seventh and Hurricane Run who won on his sixth run 12 months earlier. His trainer, not a man that normally confuses geese with swans, was reportedly in disbelief at the quality of his final gallop earlier this week, and later expressed his confidence. "I think he is ready, we have four days to Dday and it can't come quick enough." So, he has a good jockey, the ground and distances are spot on and he is in rude good health. It looks as if a brilliant opponent is our last chance to get him beaten.

Bucking some unhappy recent trends there is a well-prepared Irish team heading to France this weekend that is likely to play to form. Dylan Thomas and Soldier of Fortune are the two main hopes to give Aidan O'Brien his first Arc win . . . but the uncomfortable truth is that both of these have already lost to Authorized and that the formbook is solid. He beat the former fair and square on good going at York, and Soldier of Fortune was over eight lengths behind him at Epsom. Dylan is definitely better over longer distances, but if the word 'soft' appears in the description of the going he tends to struggle. Soldier of Fortune is improving all the time and should definitely get closer this time, but he has a big deficit to overcome when his best form is on very heavy going.

Zambesi Sun is the main hope for the home team but is only a shadow of his injured compatriot Manduro, and he needs to show an unusual level of improvement from his last run to beat Soldier of Fortune, let alone Authorized.

So it looks as if we may have uncovered a case that proves the wise man wrong. It is impossible to find any obvious reason as to why Authorized will not prove himself 'horse of the year' this afternoon in Paris. His only enemy seems to be Lady Luck and there is no argument in the world that can forecast her cruelty. If there was, there would be a lot less 'arse-less' trousers in betting shops, but you will have to guess what mood she's in yourselves.