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Peanuts, but Monkey is very glad of them



A QUIET but profitable week on the trading front. I'm not cracking open the champagne, mind you, but a starving monkey has to take what he can get.

I said farewell to my remaining position in Nvidia. This was a successful trade from the outset. That said, I handled it poorly from the very beginning and my exit turned out to be frustrating.

The stock went as high as $38 this week (I bought around $33) before receiving an 'underweight' rating from Morgan Stanley (why can't these guys just say 'sell'? ) on Wednesday, prompting a sell-off. I considered selling once the stock opened around $36.50. That was below the previous day's low but I elected to hold on . . . there was technical support at $36 region so I placed my stop under there.

I don't take broker downgrades too seriously. In fact, it's often a good idea to go against them if a downgrade causes some dumb money to exit and if technical support is nearby. I was pretty sure that support would hold at $36 and even considered adding to my position. The semiconductor sector was under pressure all day, however, and the stock wasn't long in hitting my stop.

A profit is a profit but it irked to exit at $36 when the stock was at $38 two days earlier. The fact that I was much too hasty in taking initial profits a fortnight ago meant this trade didn't yield anything like as much dosh as it should have.

My only other long position entering this week was a long bet on the Dow and that went nicely in my favour, breaking out to new highs on Monday. I sold half of my position near 14,000 . . . alltime highs set last July were at 14,021, so it was an obvious juncture to take profits.

Like Nvidia, this wasn't as successful as it might have been.

The Dow motored another 100 points higher that day before retreating back below 14,000 over the following two days. Unlike Nvidia, I don't have any complaints about my handling of the trade. I was right to take profits where I did. My profit already exceeded my initial risk and it was an obvious resistance point. If you don't use such criteria to exit, you're just involved in an amateur guessing game.

Newbie traders are always saying stupid things like 'I knew it would go higher'. Yeah right. If I knew for sure that the Dow was destined to hit an intra-day high of over 14,100, then I'd have made a monster bet before making plans for a life of idleness and indulgence.

The truth is that we never 'know' where the market is headed.

Sometimes the odds are better than at other times. Sometimes taking the trade is an absolute nobrainer and demands a bigger bet.

There's always the possibility that it will go against us, however.

I didn't 'know' that the Dow would break out to new all-time highs so I took some profits beforehand. At the same time, I knew it was a possibility and that some decent followthrough might be on the cards so I kept a portion of the position open. That's all a trader can do.

Anyway, I've raised my stop order to just below the 13,900 mark. In fact, I might add to my position if it goes that low. Tuesday and Wednesday's selling was mild and smacked of minor profit-taking rather than any change in the bullish tone.

My only other trades have been a couple of day trades in the Dow.

Neither had me jumping for joy or quaking in my boots. The first one sounds great . . . I bought near the lows of the day and sold near the top. Unfortunately, it was one of the dullest trading days imaginable, with the day's trading range barely spanning 50 points, so profits were small. The second was a break-even bore. Snooze. . .

It's incredible to think that, after all the crying and wailing of the last few months, after weeks of the most vicious selling seen in years, the Dow is once more sailing in uncharted territory. I have to say, it pains me to think I failed to participate in the 1500-point rally of the last six weeks. It's a lot easier to call a market bottom than a market top and the same signals have worked countless times since this bull market began in 2003.

Back in March, when the market was in the middle of a brief correction, I wrote the following: "If we get some real panic selling and the market tanks, I'm throwing the rule book out the window and getting ready to risk in the region of 5% on an index trade. It's a bit like poker. Poker players will not risk their shirt on an average hand. If they've got four aces, however, they'll bet big. I make such bets rarely . . . once or twice a year . . . and it's not for the inexperienced trader."

I missed out then and I missed out this time. In August, the market turned just hours after stopping me out and the turnaround was too swift for me to get on board. Still, it seems like I just don't have the cojones for these 'falling knife' trades.

That's why it's so hard to be a true contrarian trader. I saw how oversold the market was. I saw the bearish sentiment surveys. I saw the panic selling and the hysterical media coverage. A whole host of other signals emerged which implied that a turnaround was in sight (although I'd never have guessed it would be so powerful).

Nevertheless, there's nothing as difficult as pulling the trigger in themidst of such panic and this monkey wasn't up to the task.

Anyway, no point crying over spilled milk. As Scarlett O'Hara would say, tomorrow is another day.

Note: last week's balance read 48,800. It should have been 49,800 Note: last week's balance read 48,800. It should have been 49,800




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