John Quinn, managing director of Surface Power, said that prices of home solar systems are likely to fall by 60% as distributors rush to meet the anticipated rise in demand. He said, however, that he was confident that higher sales would mean his business wouldn't experience a consequent decline in revenue.

Quinn also predicted, however, that many small solar heating installers will be forced out of business as the technology becomes more commonplace and non-specialist electricians and plumbers become more familiar with installing it.

"It's going to be a quick transition like in the 1900s, when you had specialist hot water tap installers who were quickly replaced by ordinary plumbers. The same thing will happen again, " said Quinn. "The day of the solar guru is numbered. It's going to become a standard plumbing job."

He also said new mandatory training standards, which are due to be introduced next March, would reduce the number of installers.

Under the new standards, Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI) will recognise only qualified installers for grants.

Meanwhile, the proposed new building regulations also prohibit non-qualified people from installing solar systems. According to course materials, however, to secure a qualification endorsed by the SEI, you must already be a qualified plumber or heating engineer.

"Qualified plumbers and electricians will be the ones carrying forward the renewable sector in Ireland from now on, not those who have jumped on the solar bandwagon without any qualifications, " said Quinn.

Tim Cooper, managing director of another solar technology distributor, Cool Power, also agreed that the cost of solar equipment will collapse but said the solar heating businesses would experience pressure due to technological issues rather than training ones.

He said that Solar PV, a form of solar power generation that doesn't require plumbing, was starting to make inroads in Ireland and that it could eventually become the dominant technology used here.

"I don't believe solar thermal technology makes any sense, particularly as, unlike Solar PV, it doesn't generate electricity, just heat, " he said.

The chairman of the Irish Solar Energy Association, Eddie Brennan, said, however, that his members, who are mostly installers, were in favour of the new standards.

"The problem is that, at the moment, there's nothing to stop me from going out, paying for the hardware and going out to fit it to your house if I thought I could do it, " he said.