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Mathematical chance? It's all academic really
Michael Walker

 


FALLING in the Fifa rankings, spluttering in the group and faltering in behaviour, Northern Ireland look like a team with sudden engine failure. Just five weeks ago it appeared so different, with Nigel Worthington's side still steering themselves towards a realistic chance of being the lowest-ranked qualifiers at the 2008 European Championships.

But anti-climactic, dispiriting defeats against Latvia and Iceland altered that perspective, and now it is Sweden away on Wednesday, followed by Denmark and Spain.

Suddenly, Northern Ireland are as long as 50-1 to qualify. Considering they are third in the group and have already beaten Sweden and Spain in Belfast and drawn with Denmark in Copenhagen, the odds recognise that something has gone badly wrong. Unfortunately for Worthington, the downturn has coincided with his appointment as manager, replacing Lawrie Sanchez.

Worthington is now the subject of mutterings from within the camp about his methods and team selection, for Latvia in particular.

The dropping of Motherwell defender Stephen Craigan caused no ripple elsewhere on planet football, but within a small and united squad it went down so badly that it is believed to be one reason why Northern Ireland were so unconvincing in Riga.

An own goal by stand-in captain Chris Baird settled that game and another own goal, from Keith Gillespie, meant a point in Iceland five days later was lost at the death. Gillespie was then involved in a fracas with West Ham United's George McCartney on the flight home, while the Manchester United teenager Jonny Evans was fined for drinking.

"There's ways of being defeated and the Latvia defeat was one of great hurt, " Worthington said. The fight between players was described as "very disturbing".

Yet the opportunity is there. Depending on others, five points may well be enough. The question is, however, have Worthington's men unravelled beyond recovery?

"The door is still open, " insisted Worthington, before switching metaphors. "The mountain is a lot steeper than it was four weeks ago but while it's still mathematically possible, there is always a chance. We have to play well, even though we are away, which has been an Achilles heel for Northern Ireland over many years.

"We must be looking at a win to keep our hopes alive.

An uphill task faces us but sometimes Northern Ireland have been at their best when they are faced with uphill tasks. If we can show some of the resilience and character we have, and carry on that second-half performance in Iceland, we can move forward and anything can happen."

Whether even Worthington truly believes this is uncertain. Suspensions and injuries have further weakened a squad which overachieved under Sanchez. If it is to be judged by his weakest link, then the call-up of Glentoran's Gary Hamilton says something.

Once again, so much will rely on David Healy's supreme poaching ability, while in the longer term, good results will also help improve Northern Ireland's Fifa ranking, which matters when it comes to the draw for the next World Cup.

Where Worthington is when that campaign begins is another matter. The Irish Football Association have been distracted this week by Linfield's writ over the continued use of Windsor Park, and as Worthington said: "I have not ruled anything in or out."




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