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MARKET MONKEY -- Monkey takes a bath and sees red

 


WHAT a godawful, incompetent, pathetic little week I've had. I'm disgusted, not just because of hefty losses . . . although it churns my stomach to think of them . . . but because of the sheer amateurism and ill-discipline displayed from one day to the next.

What can I say? I've been disastrous. One crap trade after another. This isn't a case of hindsight bias. These trades never felt right . . . they were forced.

The market has been going up over the last few weeks, offering no retracements of any kind and giving me next to no chance of buying into a dip. It's been frustrating, to say the least. A trader has three ways of playing such a market. First option is to jump on board willy-nilly. Not only do I disagree with random entries in an overbought market, I wouldn't have the stomach for it. The second option is to wait for a pullback. This is what I'd ordinarily have done and it's what I should have done. There's nothing wrong with waiting weeks and weeks for a suitable entry point. The third option is to get shorting.

I got shorting. In itself, that's not unforgivable. Markets aren't meant to go up in a straight line and there's nothing wrong with selling a weak stock that's risen. What's really dumb, however, is shorting the bull market leaders trading at 52-week highs. That's what I did.

First up, Apple. Apple's been in a rage over the last six weeks. I follow the stock religiously so I know it's capable of generating some serious momentum when it gets going.

Nevertheless, I was shocked by just how strong it's been recently (after bottoming at $115 in mid-August, it hit $170 this week). Anyway, I decided to go for a counter-trend short in the hope that some overdue profit-taking would set in.

Again, in itself that's not unforgivable but some kind of decent technical resistance must be evident before diving in. I entered at what could be called a very minor resistance point . . . not good enough. Not only that, a reduced position should always be taken in any such speculative counter-trend trades. Instead, I took my normal position size.

I went short at $158. This was where the all-time high was set just a few days previously and I was hoping it would not get past $160. It did and I was stopped out at $165.

That was bad. That was amateur.

Compared to the horror show that followed, however, it was the trade of the century.

Like Apple, Google has been strong as hell recently . . . up over $100 from its August low of $490.

The previous week saw it head towards $600 before retreating back to $580. It went back up and I decided to get short just shy of $600.

Again, it was speculative and a bit forced. Still, round numbers like $600 can act as resistance. Coupled with Google's overbought nature, a small position could possibly be countenanced. Again, however, I took my normal position size.

It blew me away, soaring past $600 in no time at all. By the end of the trading day, it was headed for my stop at $610.

You guessed it. I pulled the stop. I knew it was reckless but I didn't want to lose yet another grand (beside Apple, I was down in another short position) on top of what's been a poor month.

It made for a sleepless night. I decided that if the stock came anywhere near $600, I was getting out. Similarly, I knew that I had to reinstate some kind of stop, otherwise I was facing potentially gargantuan losses. If it went above $620, I was out.

This was insane and I knew it but I was hoping I'd get away with it. I didn't. The stock opened at $615 and took out my stop in no time at all. Over 2,000 down. I was appalled with myself. In fact, the knowledge of what I did was possibly even worse than the loss.

Only twice in the last year have I pulled my stops. The first time it was actually justified . . . I won't get into the details, but there was a rationale for it and the plan worked.

The second time was during a particularly manic spell in the aftermath of an interest rate announcement. My behaviour was bonkers but many traders get caught up in the heat of the moment and I did at least close that position within half an hour (I also got away with it).

This time was worse. I got into a trade that probably wasn't worth taking in the first place. Instead of facing the loss, I ran away and stuck my head under the covers. If ever there was a trade where I got what I deserved, it was this one.

Anyway, that wasn't the end of my misery. I had shorted Adobe at $44.75. The stock was in an uptrend but a much less dramatic one than Apple and Google. There was resistance at my entry point. Who knows, in a different market environment this trade might have worked. Thing is, the Nasdaq has been ripping of late and it continued to belie its overbought nature this week. I was stopped out at $45.50 on Wednesday.

I also suffered losing day trades this week. Day trading is the last thing you should be doing when you're battered and bruised like I've been this week. The best thing I could do is probably switch off the computer for a few days.

My only position at the moment is the long bet on the Dow Jones I initiated a couple of weeks ago. It's been my sole source of profit in an otherwise catastrophic week.

The risk now is that I try and 'get the money back'. I've got to let it pass and stay calm and focused.

Doing otherwise could make a bad situation worse.

Weekly gain/loss: . . . 4,200
Overall balance: 46,700




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