THE latest redrawing of the Dail boundaries by the Constituency Commission almost makes you wish for the good ol' days when the minister for environment of the day used to take a pen to the state's map and lovingly gerrymander a new set of constituencies. Sure, it was always blatantly political and utterly biased in favour of whatever political party happened to be in government, but at least it was never halfhearted.
Removing my tongue from my cheek for a moment, obviously nobody wants to go back to the days of the Tullymander.
But Odran Flynn, the political analyst who three years ago first raised the issue of the constitutionality of the Dail constituencies, hits the nail on the head when he points out that while an independent Constituency Commission is necessary and worthwhile, it doesn't make its findings infallible.
The commission's report is hugely disappointing and, in places, absolutely impossible to fathom.
The obvious starting point is Leitrim and the commission's quite unbelievable failure . . . despite over 200 submissions on the issue . . . to address the situation whereby no TD comes from the county. In fact, by moving a chunk of population from Roscommon-South Leitrim into Sligo-North Leitrim, the commission has made the situation worse, effectively guaranteeing the county is unable to elect a TD from within its own ranks.
The commission's explanation for not including all of Leitrim in one constituency is wholly unconvincing. It said the alternatives had significant disadvantages . . .
the breaching of county boundaries; the placing of three counties in one constituency; geographic difficulties; "loss of continuity". Surely, all these concerns are considerably less important than the need to ensure that a county is able to elect at least one TD from within its borders?
The solution proposed to the commission by the PDs . . . of creating two three-seat constituencies of Leitrim-Cavan West and Monaghan-Cavan East . . . would seem to have been infinitely preferable. Presumably, this was unacceptable to the commission at least partly because it would involve a crossing of provincial boundaries. But this would not be without precedent (remember Longford-Roscommon? ) and, besides, there are obvious ties and linkages between the populations of Leitrim and west Cavan.
This solution would also have corrected another obvious flaw in the commission's report. Leaving Cavan-Monaghan unchanged as a five-seater means that it is over-represented by more than 6% compared to the national average. Not only is this in excess of the previously regarded 'norm' of 5% variance but, in a High Court case earlier this year, judge Frank Clarke recommended that the normal variance should be in the region of 2%, not 5%.
Aside from Leitrim, the other big loser is Limerick. Kerry, with a population of less than 140,000, no longer justifies six seats and the obvious solution would have been to create a single five-seat Kerry constituency. Instead, the commission opted to keep Kerry South and create three new constituencies: Limerick (three seats); Limerick City (four seats) and Kerry Northwest Limerick (three seats). In relation to the latter, the 'West Limerick' bit is there in name only.
With just 13,146 people (out of a total of over 77,000) from Limerick in the constituency, there is little chance of a candidate from West Limerick getting elected.
If these constituencies are used in the next general election, simple arithmetic suggests there will be six Kerry TDs elected, even though the census clearly shows that the county's population does not justify that. Over the past 20 years, the soon-to-be abolished Limerick East constituency grew by 18,000 people. That is 3,000 more than the combined population of Kerry North and South, yet it is Limerick which effectively loses a seat.
The same strange logic is at play in Dublin North and Kildare South . . . two of the top three fastest growing constituencies in the state.
Dublin North's population has grown by 50,000 since 1986, while the combined population of the two adjoining three-seat constituencies . . . Dublin Northeast and Dublin North Central . . . has fallen by 15,000.
Given also that Dublin North had been chronically under-represented (by a staggering 18%) and the other two constituencies were over-represented, the obvious thing to do was turn Dublin North into a five-seater and combine North-East and North-Central into a second fiveseater. Instead, the commission opted to move chunks of Dublin North into both Dublin Northeast and Dublin West, thereby maintaining it as a four-seater. The decision involved shifting part of Swords into Dublin West, making it the only major town in the state divided between two constituencies.
There was also a strong case for providing for an additional seat for threeseat Kildare South, given that it and adjoining Laois-Offaly were both underrepresented and likely to continue to grow strongly in the coming years. But that would have required either taking a seat from elsewhere or increasing the number of TDs, so instead, the commission opted to move parts of Kildare South into Kildare North and, bizzarely, a section of LaoisOffaly into Tipperary North.
Tipperary North had been perfectly represented with a variance from the national average population per TD of less than 1%. But because of the commission's decision to add parts of Laois-Offaly to it, it will now be under-represented by almost 5%. Quite an achievement.
The unavoidable conclusion from all of this is that, with the population likely to continue its rapid rise . . . unevenly spread across the state . . . serious problems are being stored up for four years' time, when a new census is certain to highlight the need for more major changes to the constituencies. It could have been so different.
It should have been so different.
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