This phenomenon also happened back in 2002, it is argued, and Fianna Fail support ebbed and flowed over the following five years right up until the televised leaders' debate in the last week of the election campaign.

But while the drop in support, as in 2002, certainly comes on the back of bad news . . . with everything from the Taoiseach's amnesiac Mahon tribunal performance to the fiasco over provisional licences, falling house prices, dwindling tax returns, HSE cuts and some high profile job losses in the mix . . . this time, it's different.

This time Fianna Fail TDs and ministers . . . and Fianna Fail's leader- and Taoiseach-inwaiting, Brian Cowen . . . are being led by a man who will have retired from politics by the time the next scheduled contest for power takes place.

Just as with Tony Blair in Britain, the moment Bertie Ahern announced he would not be standing for election after this term of office, he painted a target on his face and practically invited the slings and arrows of political misfortune to be aimed at him.

Perhaps the Taoiseach thought he could withstand the usual knocks of the media and callers to radio phone-ins. But thanks to the extraordinarily inept start this highly experienced government has made since the return of the Dail just a month ago, the focus has narrowed more acutely on him.

The Irish Times/MRBI poll contained some surprises, none more so than Brian Cowen's satisfaction rating at 49%, which was higher than the unusually low 43% attained by Bertie Ahern.

And of course, it is Brian Cowen's opinion which matters today. It was Cowen who, in the early weeks of the election campaign, roused Fianna Fail from sleepwalking to electoral defeat behind a distinctly lacklustre and rattled Bertie Ahern.

It is Brian Cowen who has gone out of his way to portray himself forcibly as the decisive driver of the economy. He pulls no punches when he talks of tougher times but still, in the version of himself he wants the voter to buy, he projects himself as a steady captain who will be able to guide us through the coming choppy waters.

It is Brian Cowen who sees himself as the next leader of Fianna Fail . . . and if he wants to become Taoiseach, it is Brian Cowen who will put distance between himself and his present leader, should Bertie Ahern become a political liability.

Before the last election, that possibility was never entertained. But all that has now changed. The past few months have seen Ahern irritable and unsure in his handling of some difficult issues, not least his Mahon Tribunal appearances. The public can see it and, this latest poll shows, doesn't like it.

The length of time it took for the government to issue a definitive "we won't interfere" statement over the Aer Lingus move to Belfast gave the Shannon lobby a huge (albeit pyrrhic) PR victory even though most people agreed that the airline must be allowed to do business free of government meddling.

The Taoiseach's statement after the death of cancer victim Susie Long, a victim of the two-tier health system, was less than convincing.

His justification of his enormous salary on the grounds that, unlike the French president, he didn't reside in the Elysee palace, looked silly . . . and simply allowed us all to contemplate, yet again, the mindboggling financial arrangements which surrounded his desire to find a house to live in in the 1990s.

All things considered, he appears to have lost his common touch.

The transition to a new leader cannot come quickly enough.