Next season those rugby folk up in Ulster will no doubt have a drink or two for the 10th anniversary of their European Cup success of 1999. It's only right and fitting.

This season, however, sees another 10th anniversary, but one that those involved in Irish rugby back then would rather forget. One that there'll be no glasses raised to. The 1997/98 rugby season was the last time that there was no Irish representation in the knock-out stages of the Heineken or European Cup.

Leinster and Munster both lost four games out of six.

Ulster went one worse and lost five. Back then it probably meant little but 10 years on it does.

For the first time since those early days of professionalism, days when the entire concept was a little alien, there's a genuine chance that none of Ireland's three Heineken Cup participants will be in the competition past January. That prognosis is not a reaction to Ireland's horrific World Cup campaign. Even if Eddie O'Sullivan's side had brought the Webb Ellis trophy home tucked under their arms, only those sky-high on optimism would predict anything other than an early exit for the provinces. It's all about the pools, you see. Munster and Leinster are in the most difficult pools they've ever found themselves in but Declan Kidney can't really complain.

The Irish seedings are decided upon by performance in the Magners League. Munster finished below both Leinster and Ulster in the table therefore they've been drawn in a pool with last season's Heineken Cup winners, the second best team in France and the third best in Wales. The fact that these teams are Wasps, Clermont Auvergne and Llanelli is just tough.

Leinster, however, must be wondering what on earth the point is in doing well in the Magners League. As top seeds, they've been drawn with England's top-dogs, Leicester, one of France's Top 14 semi-finalists, Toulouse, and Scotland's second best outfit, Edinburgh.

Now that is harsh, particularly when you consider that Ulster were a seed below Leinster and yet ended up in a pool with Gloucester, Bourgoin and the Ospreys: not easy by any means but a little more manageable. It's an anomaly that needs fixing, as ERC chief executive Derek McGrath admitted in Cardiff this week, but how to do it is the more important question.

Perhaps a seeding system based on previous Heineken Cup form as well as domestic league finishing position?

We'll leave the brains at the ERC to work that one out.

So if that . . . the pools the provinces have been drawn in . . . is one obstacle towards knock-out qualification, then the other worry is a potential player hangover from the Coupe de Monde. The thing is, we don't necessarily think it works like that. Take Lens 1999. The Heineken Cup that followed it was the one where Munster got to their first final, against Northampton.

In 2004, the southern province only failed to reach their third final after a defeat at the penultimate stage to Wasps at Lansdowne Road.

This World Cup campaign may have been a little different to the 2003 version, but it bore remarkable similarities to 1999. The fact is there's no historical precedent for Irish international players carrying World Cup baggage back with them to their provinces and it shouldn't be any different this year.

If anything, World Cup success, or relative success, could affect this year's Heineken Cup participants more than failure does. How, for example, can an Argentinean player who invested so much emotional energy in their side's World Cup run hope to replicate that for his European club? The same applies to French players, involved in a particularly pressurised campaign. And will England's players be physically wrecked rather than mentally invigorated following their jaunt to the World Cup final?

We'll find out the answers to those questions over time but we firmly believe that the English and French teams in this competition could possibly be caught cold in the first two weekends of this competition. Which is why, if Ireland's provinces are to avoiding repeating the occurrences of 10 seasons ago, Leinster need to beat Leicester and have a good crack off Toulouse in France over the first two weekends of the competition and Munster probably have to account for Wasps in Coventry and Clermont Auvergne at home.

Ulster's case, especially in the first weeks, is the most worrying. If they're to qualify for the knock-out stages they simply have to beat Gloucester at Ravenhill on Friday and, in many ways, they have to beat Bourgoin away the following Friday, too. Both fixtures are far from gimmes but if Mark McCall's side fail in either, they'll be effectively out of the running by the time the second series of fixtures come around in December. With their Magners League campaign practically dead too after a dismal start, Ulster's season could be over a couple of weeks before the New Year. But remember, Ulster have won just four of their last 25 away games in this competition. They don't inspire confidence.

Leinster, on the other hand, do deserve a bit of our faith but theirs is a tough old pool.

As we mentioned, a victory over Leicester at the RDS on Saturday lunchtime is a must, or Michael Cheika's European dream will be over before it starts. The following weekend against Toulouse is going to be extraordinarily difficult but if they play well and get a bonus point out of it, a loss won't be the end of the world. Defeat in either of the double headers in December against Edinburgh, however, would. Hopefully it doesn't come to that because for the first time in Cheika's reign, and possibly under any other reign in the professional era, Leinster have a pack powerful enough to compete with Europe's finest.

Conversely, Munster have always had the forwards and not the backs but they are significantly strengthened in the latter department this season. Paul Warwick, Rua Tipoki, Kieran Lewis and, after Christmas, Doug Howlett, are all serious players. It's just a matter of Declan Kidney fitting them in properly. Of all the Irish teams in the first weekend, Munster are the outfit that don't absolutely have to win but still, they'll look at Wasps, with their bevy of English internationals just back from the World Cup, and think that it might be their best chance of scoring an away win in their pool. After that, they'll have to win all their home pool games to at least have a chance of reaching the knock-out stages for the 10th season in a row and it will be fascinating to see how they react to playing their Thomond Park games at 1.00 on a Sunday rather than the 5.30 Saturday slot that has proved so intimidating over the past five seasons.

In all honesty, the best Irish rugby fans can hope for is one province in the knockout stages, which should leave the rest of the tournament dominated by the French and English clubs. A particularly lopsided draw has Stade Francais, Biarritz and Perpignan as near certainties to top their respective pools. If we were inclined to believe in conspiracy theories we might be thinking that these three easy pools were a trade-off for French participation in the competition.

Elsewhere, you're inclined to think that Gloucester will top Pool 2, Wasps probably just about have the edge in Pool 5 and either Leicester or Toulouse will emerge from Pool 6. Of course, Munster and Leinster can upset the order in those last two pools but if we're purely clinical about it, they'll need to do something extremely special to manage it. In the absence of that happening, then, we're likely to see three pool winners from France, three from England and, no matter what way you look at it, the two best runners-up slots are likely to go to second-placed teams in either Pools 1, 2 or 4, that means London Irish, the Ospreys or Saracens.

If things go as expected, Stade Francais appear tournament favourites ahead of Biarritz, Toulouse and Wasps but like the Rugby World Cup, let's hope that what we predict doesn't happen.

Seven or eight English or French clubs in the quarterfinals wouldn't be healthy for European rugby, not that either of our big neighbours would shed even half a tear for the demise of the other nations.

Still, the Heineken Cup has always surprised and enthralled us. Long may it continue to do just that.