The 1980s: depressing and downright miserable. Unemployment was chronic, with thousands of people on the dole. The nation's young and gifted were emigrating en masse to sunnier economic climes. Public deficit stood at 13%. And the government made what was a bad situation worse with massive borrowing and tax rates as high as 60% while Irish musicians such as The Boomtown Rats and Brush Shields tried to get it all back by raising millions of punts for a job creation trust fund doing a 14-hour singathon called Self Aid.


Fast forward to 2008 and the economy is on the slippery slopes once more. House prices are plummeting, with the national average paid for a house now standing at €278,000. Interest rates are rising and so too is the number of unemployed, with the latest figures re­porting 106,200 people out of work. But just how bad is the situation likely to get? Could we be reeling in the years back to the 1980s with another recession? We ask some people who survived the dark days.


"This is just a normal economic cycle, not something more
apocalyptic"


The economist


Austin Hughes, chief economist,
IIB Bank


Working in the department of finance, Bord Fáilte and then the Central Bank, in the 1980s I was very much in the centre of what was going on.


The situation today is altogether different. Back then, unemployment was huge. There was a significant haemorrhage from the economy in terms of capital and people. All the building blocks required for a successful economy weren't there.


Now we're talking about curtailing public spending, back then it was 'how are we going to get money in?' We had high inflation and high public debt.


The whole focus of economic business was to minimise tax liability rather than maximise profits.


In terms of a sudden increase in the number of unemployed now on the live register, people can make a simple mechanical comparison to the '80s. The actual situation is not the same.


In the '80s, the government propped up businesses that had no future with the result that even the good companies went to the wall.


In the '80s, there was a sense of no possible tomorrow; the downturn was the norm.


While lay-offs are harsh, it's good that businesses are now making that decision much earlier. The economy is just repositioning itself. I'm not downplaying the need for people to tighten their belts, but this isn't a crises.


Back in '80s, we were on the fringes of Europe in a world that was very localised, now we're right at centre of Europe economically. As a consequence though, when there is a global downturn we feel the effects.


As to how severe the downturn will be, it does threaten to be significant but we're not in an Armageddon scenario.


We may even have already seen the lowest point, but we're not going to experience the results of that for a year or two.


How the government responds to the current situation will be key.It can be oblivious to what's going on or it could panic and cause further panic in the economy by increasing taxes and cutting spending.


In the 1980s, we walked right to the edge of the abyss before we turned ourselves around.


Despite the slowdown, we still have huge things going for us.


We need people to be realistic. We don't want someone deciding they're going to be the one to turn the lights off first.


"In tough times, good estate agents need to be better and stronger"


The estate agent


Simon Ensor, director of auctions, Sherry FitzGerald


I joined Sherry FitzGerald in 1983 as associate director. Back then, there were only 16 people working in the company – today there's over 500. The whole property market was different then. Even the general atmosphere was dramatically different.


In the '80s, young people couldn't buy second-hand homes. It used to take six months just to get loan approval, and that's if you were lucky to get it.


Back then there was little work for estate agencies. You took longer lunches because sales were scarce and contracts took longer to sign.


There's no denying that activity levels are down now. House prices are falling, confidence is low and fewer people are in a position to buy, but I firmly believe this is just a transition period. What we're experiencing is a hiccup.


When the market bounces back, and it will, it will be more significant than people expect. I'm confident we'll see a growth of 5% to 6%. The only question is when. I thought it would be mid 2009, but a combination of the credit crunch and banks tightening their belts means it's now looking like the end of 2009.


I don't think we should panic. People who bought recently are no doubt feeling the worst effects.


Banks of course need to be more liquid but there's a lot of people out there, just sitting on the fence, waiting to see what will happen before they buy. If they analysed the situation though, they'd realise they're now in a better position than ever. I'd be amazed if buyers looked back in five years' time and discovered they're actually worse off.


Having been through it all before, I also believe that now it's more important than ever for estate agents to give good advice. Houses aren't going to sell themselves anymore and estate agents are going to have to use their skills to match the profile of their buyer with the right property. In tough times, good estate agents only get better and stronger; the bad ones will get weeded out.


"We need to rediscover the idea of a house as a home and not some sort of investment vehicle"


The homeowner


Helen Rogers, former property editor, Sunday Tribune


It was my mum who got us our first house – not because she had loads of money, but because she didn't.


She was always very frugal, saving coins and ten shilling notes in glass jars at the bottom of her wardrobe, each one marked clearly for which bill she needed to pay. It was she who advised us to keep our building society accounts with our birthday money in them "just in case you've something important to buy".


So when it came to our first house, it was a good job that account was there, practically untouched since childhood. At that time, inflation was so bad, unemployment so high and credit so tight that building societies and banks actually "closed" for loans for large parts of the year. But if you'd had a deposit account with the Irish Permanent for 12 months or more, no matter how little was in it, they would agree to consider your case.


There was no such thing as 100% loans – or even 90% mortgages on second-hand houses. We were told we would get 75% on the old cottage we had our eyes on – and had to raise the rest through savings and a bank loan to be paid back at an even crazier rate of interest.


In order to get a loan if you were a woman, you had to be married, or have a man sign up as your security.


Our dream house remained unfurnished and carpet-less for about five years. By today's standards, it was all a bit rough and ready but we'd no children and there were far fewer things to spend your money on.


Today, the pressures on our children are totally different. They are part of a have-it-all generation that finds the concept of delayed gratification totally alien. Back in my day, the banks gave too little money – today, we're all enduring the consequences of them having lent too much. Prices are dropping and unfortunately the real victims are those who felt pressured to sign up for 100% loans at the top of the market.


I'd hope for my children that the overwhelming pressure to buy at any cost recedes and, dare I say it, our attitudes to renting become more European.


I'd also hope that we rediscover the idea of a house as a home and not some sort of investment vehicle.


"The government needs to crack the problem of social housing"


The charity advisr


Stuart Kenny, St Vincent de Paul


I've been working for St Vincent de Paul since the 60s as a spokesperson and advisor. The situation back in the 1980s was dire. There were a lot more people living in absolute poverty then. People were not just losing jobs and houses; they were going without the basic necessities of life.


What's happening in the economy now is different but it's going in the wrong direction. Recently we have started to receive more calls from homeowners who need our help. Calls were up 49% in the first five months of this year compared to the same period last year. Rising food costs and soaring energy bills are starting to bite.


In the 80s the government was still building corporation houses, that slowed down significantly during the boom. If the government wants to really help, now's never been a better time to crack the problem of social housing. We have the skills and the man power to do it and it would keep people in jobs and the construction industry going.


While the number of repossessions is increasing they are not as common as many have feared. Lending institutions have a responsibility to act ethically and morally when they're giving out money, and so far they're doing well on that score.


For those who are experiencing financial difficulty the important thing is to act early, to get advice. Calling St Vincent de Paul is not the end of the world. We don't just offer money; we can introduce people to other agencies who can provide a structured way forward.