Fallout: the spotlight will be on Brian Cowen and how he deals with this setback – for the Taoiseach the summer break can't come soon enough pa/niall carson

LUCK is a vital ingredient in any success-ful career, so perhaps it is an ominous sign that the first major setback of Brian Cowen's tenure as Taoiseach came on Friday the 13th.


The blow to Cowen's authority is undeniable. It is was his first serious test of a leadership that hasn't had a smooth first six weeks – and he failed. If it's any consolation for him, the Taoiseach is in good company. The government parties, Fine Gael, Labour, Ibec, Ictu, the IFA and various other groupings got whupped by a rag-bag coalition of traditional anti-EU leftie activists, pro-lifers, ill-informed celebrities and free-market neo-cons with scarcely an elected representative between them.


There was a certain irony that the result of the referendum, dealing a crushing blow to the political establishment, was announced at Dublin Castle – scene of so many revelations, some very recent, that have done so much to undermine the standing of politicians and politics in this country.


Given those revelations, the wholesale mistrust of mainstream politicians by the electorate, while depressing, was not the most extraordinary aspect of Friday's result. The one 'given' over the past 35 years has been that the EU has been good for Ireland. Yet, here was the electorate saying 'sod-off' to a treaty designed to make that EU work better.


The rise in the no vote from around half a million in the Nice referendums to 860,000-plus this time around was genuinely astounding. There will always be 18-19% or so of the electorate that will vote no in an EU referendum but, this time, another 9-10% was added to that total.


So what was different? Sure, Lisbon was difficult to sell. But some of the previous EU referendums – comfortably won – should have offered a lot more potential for the No side.


In the absence of an exit poll, it's hard to know exactly what factors were at play. But we can say with reasonable certainty that, with all due respect, it wasn't Sinn Féin, Patricia McKenna, the pro-life movement, Joe Higgins, the SWP, etc. They have always been naysayers on Europe and they haven't been able to deliver more than half a million votes.


The others on the No side might not like to admit it but the presence of Libertas this time around certainly changed the dynamic of the referendum. Declan Ganley's group – notwithstanding question marks about their funding and their motivation – brought business respectability to the No side. More importantly, Libertas brought a war chest of at least €1.5m – more money than the main Dáil parties put together. And with that kind of money comes power and influence. "The issue of Ireland losing its commissioner was a big issue. Why? Because, it was on posters the length and breadth of the country," said one close observer. Libertas's central role in the 70%-plus increase in the no vote from the Nice referendums is beyond dispute.


It helped that the No side was tapping into a level of Euroscepticism never previously seen here before. There is one serious drawback to the widespread conclusion that voters voted no because they didn't understand the Lisbon treaty. Are we seriously expected to believe that the same voters knew chapter and verse about the Nice or Maastricht treaties? Hardly. Other issues were at play.


Many on the Yes side believe the pessimism about the economy was a huge factor in people's rejection of the treaty. Immigration was also an elephant in the room during the campaign. To their credit, nobody on the No side raised the issue of the hundreds of thousands of immigrants that have come to Ireland. But privately politicians believe the high level of immigration since the EU was expanded was a factor, particularly against a backdrop of rising unemployment.


Finger pointing among the Yes side is inevitable after the defeat. Privately, Fianna Fáilers believe Enda Kenny and Fine Gael did sweet FA for the Yes side. While many in the main opposition party believe Fianna Fáil messed up by prevaricating over the date for so long. They also feel Cowen added to the problems by alienating Fine Gael voters over remarks about their party's efforts and then failing to get the farmers onside early enough.


Fianna Fáil angrily rejects suggestions that it ran a lacklustre campaign – claiming the organisation and all its TDs put in a huge effort. There is no doubt the party put in as much, if not more, of an effort than it did in the second Nice referendum. But whether anything more than symbolic knocking on doors was done is a moot point. Did TDs, who know better than anyone that there are only so many times one can go to the well, really want to go out on a limb in areas where they knew there was hostility to the referendum?


The arguments and counter claims are rendered irrelevant by the result. The Yes side lost, so it was a bad campaign. It's hard to be certain about the long-term impact on Cowen's tenure as Taoiseach. Bertie Ahern lost two referendums and it had no impact on his popularity or subsequent re-election. However, Ahern had already won a general election and the economy was booming.


Cowen has no such luxury and, after a rocky start, could have done with a big win. While he performed well in the final week, questions will inevitably be raised as to whether his predecessor's more measured, diplomatic touch might have led to a better outcome – although the reality is that it probably wouldn't have.


There is solace for Cowen and Fianna Fáil from Fine Gael's dire, but largely ignored, Irish Times opinion poll rating eight days ago and by Kenny's generally poor performance during the Lisbon campaign. The strength of the no vote in Mayo was a further embarrassment for the Fine Gael leader.


But for now the spotlight will be on the Taoiseach and how he deals with this setback. He would be forgiven for ruminating in private that the timing of his elevation to the top job could have been a lot better – and not just because of Lisbon. Serious challenges lie ahead for Cowen: rising unemployment; deteriorating public finances; negotiations on Ireland's carbon emissions and rising energy costs. The summer break – that traditional refuge for embattled government leaders – cannot come quickly enough.