IT'S not quite 'show time', to borrow PJ Mara's memorable phrase from the 2002 general election, but it's getting close. In five days, the country goes to the polls in the Euro, local and by-elections in what promises to be the most important mid-term contests ever. Can Fianna Fáil hold its four seats in Europe? Is it facing another hammering in the local elections? Who will win the battle of the main opposition parties, Fine Gael and Labour? Will the Greens be left ruing their decision to go into government with Fianna Fáil? The answers to these and other questions should be apparent by next weekend.

South constituency

Two of the three seats are as good as bagged. Fianna Fáil's Brian Crowley will be comfortably elected, probably topping the poll. Fine Gael is also guaranteed a seat, with former GAA president Sean Kelly likely to be the party's frontrunner. After that, there are four candidates in with a shout of the third seat: Independent and incumbent Kathy Sinnott, Labour Senator Alan Kelly, Sinn Féin's Toiréasa Ferris and sitting Fine Gael MEP Colm Burke. Green Party senator Dan Boyle is unlikely to be in the shake-up. Of the four, it looks like it will end up between Sinnott and Kelly, although Fine Gael has a slight chance of pulling off a second seat coup. Alan Kelly has spent big and run a fine campaign and would benefit if there is a surge of support nationally for Labour on polling day. However, it would be unwise to discount Sinnott's prospects. She is better placed geographically than Kelly for transfers and she may also do well from female, conservative Catholic and anti-Lisbon voters.

Shane Coleman's prediction: Brian Crowley (FF), Sean Kelly (FG), Kathy Sinnott (Independent)

Conor McMorrow's prediction: Brian Crowley (FF), Sean Kelly (FG), Alan Kelly (Labour)

Dublin

With the capital reduced to a three-seater, one of the sitting MEPs is going to lose out here. It won't be Gay Mitchell, who should top the poll, or Proinsias De Rossa, who is safe. That leaves a fight between Fianna Fáil's Eoin Ryan, Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald and the Socialist Party's Joe Higgins for the third seat. The belief around Leinster House is that Ryan is seriously up against it. McDonald should do better from transfers from the likes of Joe Higgins and Patricia McKenna. Fianna Fáil has opted to run lord mayor Eibhlin Byrne alongside Ryan to give it a presence on the northside, but there are many who believe a one-candidate strategy would be wiser given the party's unpopularity in Dublin. Fianna Fáil badly needs to win this one but it's going to be tight.

Shane Coleman's prediction: Gay Mitchell (FG), Proinsias De Rossa (Labour) and Mary Lou McDonald (SF)

Conor McMorrow's prediction: Gay Mitchell (FG), Proinsias De Rossa (Labour) and Joe Higgins (Soc)

East Constituency

Fine Gael's Mairead McGuinness is expected to repeat her 2004 poll-topping performance and take the first of the three seats in this contest. Despite a haphazard campaign that even involved him putting up hundreds of posters in Longford and Westmeath – two counties that are no longer part of the constituency – there should be enough Fianna Fáil votes in the area to return sitting MEP Liam Aylward to Europe. Aylward has the services of popular young TD Thomas Byrne to rely on as a 'sweeper' in the north of the constituency. That leaves a fight between Labour's Nessa Childers and Fine Gael's John Paul Phelan for the third seat. Can Fine Gael pull off the triumph of 2004 by electing two MEPs in this constituency? Backing Phelan, retiring MEP Avril Doyle has questioned the "Foxrock girl's" (Childers) knowledge of agriculture and accused her of 'political naivety' in recent days. Childers hopes to take the seat on the back of the popularity of the Labour party nationally under the Gilmore-Burton leadership. Despite spats between McGuinness and Phelan about them trespassing on each other's territory, Fine Gael could yet retain the two seats if they manage their votes correctly.

Shane Coleman's prediction: Mairead McGuinness (FG), Liam Aylward (FF) and Nessa Childers (Lab)

Conor McMorrow's prediction: Mairead McGuinness (FG), Liam Aylward (FF) and Nessa Childers (Lab)

North - West Constituency

Yet another constituency where two of the three seats look pretty straightforward. Sitting MEP Jim Higgins of Fine Gael and former MEP Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher of Fianna Fáil look like certainties. Marian Harkin, another sitting MEP, is most pundits' choice for the final seat. However, Libertas' founder Declan Ganley cannot be ruled out. He has claimed on radio that his own polling puts him in the shake up for that third seat. Bookmaker Paddy Power has also reported that the biggest single price move on any candidate has been for Ganley, whose odds have been slashed from as big as 3/1 back in April to a current price of 5/4. But even if Ganley succeeds in garnering a big first-preference vote, the big question is whether he can get the necessary transfers to get him over the line.

Shane Coleman's prediction: Jim Higgins (FG), Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher (FF) and Marian Harkin (Independent)

Conor McMorrow's prediction: Jim Higgins (FG), Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher (FF) and Marian Harkin (Independent)

Shane Coleman's Euro totals: FG 4, FF 3, Lab 2, SF?1, Indep 2

Conor McMorrow's Euro totals: FG 4, FF 3, Lab 3, Soc 1, Indep 1

Dublin Central By-Election

Virtually impossible to call this one with any one of five candidates in with a shot. Expect them to be tightly bunched after the first count and then it depends on the order in which candidates are eliminated. Of the five, it looks too big an ask for Sinn Féin's Christy Burke and Fianna Fáil's Maurice Ahern (governments don't win by-elections, especially hugely unpopular ones). That leaves Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe, Labour's Ivana Bacik and the Gregory candidate Maureen O'Sullivan. Fine Gael may struggle to pick up transfers in this constituency, so Donohoe will need a big first preference vote. Labour is strong in Dublin but it remains to be seen whether Bacik is the right candidate for Dublin Central. O'Sullivan, however, could pick up transfers across the board. Whoever wins probably won't reach the quota and will literally be the last man or woman standing.

Shane Coleman's prediction: Maureen O'Sullivan (Independent)

Conor McMorrow's prediction: Ivana Bacik (Labour)

Dublin South By-Election

Labour's Alex White and Fianna Fáil's Shay Brennan must feel like the 'other' swimmers in an Olympic swimming final against 14-time gold medal winner Michael Phelps. At 1/50 with the bookies, George Lee is almost certain to take the late Seamus Brennan's Dáil seat for Fine Gael, with some going so far as to suggest he will get over 50% of the vote on the first count. Labour's Alex White is hoping he can stay close enough after the first count and capitalise on transfers from Brennan and the Greens' Elizabeth Davidson. Transfers to the 'George Lee brand', and not neccessarily to Fine Gael, should secure the seat if Lee doesn't win on the first count.

Shane Coleman's prediction: George Lee (FG)

Conor McMorrow's prediction: George Lee (FG)