Judging by the number of comments on the property page of the Sunday Tribune online, nothing gets readers reaching for the keyboard quite like that most contentious of topics – house prices. Then, to really get their goat, along came last week's headline in the Irish Times referring to a report on the European housing market by Standard and Poor claiming 'Irish property' may be undervalued'. Sellers would have been momentarily uplifted, others aghast, at the news that our ongoing market correction "seems overdone". That would have been until they read further and discovered that the agency didn't rule out a further decline in prices.
Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that government still has not introduced promised legislation to overturn the Data Protection Act gag on actual selling prices, so all we have to go on are asking prices. The general view is that we are still quite some way off that much quoted 'bottom of the market'.
In analysis quoted on Daft.ie back in April, Brian Lucey, professor of finance at TCD School of Business, echoed UCD's Morgan Kelly's prediction that a fall of 50% from the peak of mid-2006 was necessary before any sign of an upturn. Lucey established that the market therefore faces another 18 months of falling prices.
With an expectation that there is still some way to go, what is actually selling? In the absence of facts on actual prices, Daft.ie is tracking activity on sales. And according to economist Ronan Lyons, those figures are pretty good. "We looked at how many properties were posted for January, and then tracked how many were 'sale agreed' or were taken off the site by April. About one in three within that period were 'sale agreed'."
As to the suggestion that we face another 18 months of falling prices, Lyons says Brian Lucey is using that statistic as a rule of thumb based on property crashes elsewhere. "Prices fall quickly at the start of a downturn, but then the pace of the fall gradually slows. I'm certainly not saying we are anywhere near the end that decline yet, but if you look at certain areas of Dublin, prices have already fallen back by 50% from the peak – particularly if you bear in mind that selling prices are invariably lower than asking prices."
Paul O'Connor of Myhat.ie, a property site that can summarise trends of sales and price listings in certain areas, says those hoping to sell should get used to the fact that the falling market will continue for some time. "Rather than focusing on how long the decline will last, they should decide whether or not to sell."
So far, prices are down an average of 6%, while we are heading for a total drop this year of over 14% (compared to about 18% in 2009). The average asking price for a three-bed semi in Dublin is now close to €342,000, says O'Connor.
"We are still seeing a 1% to 2% fall monthly, and while unemployment increases, the number of buyers decreases. But if you look at certain areas, you may see that prices have stabilised to a degree – actually our survey of four-bed semis in south Dublin shows a slight increase in prices. And that's because there is a steady demand for those properties. During the boom, there was almost a desperation to get on the ladder, so first-time buyers bought in the outlying suburbs and commuter belt. The fact that there are so many of these properties now for sale will keep drawing that average price statistic down, but the average for Dublin won't accurately reflect every area."
John Doherty, an agent for the Drumcondra office of Sherry FitzGerald, says activity is a lot better than this time last year. First-time buyers especially are now "in it for the long haul, buying a house for life, rather than starting with an apartment and working up". He is operating in one of the busier areas for the agency – Dublin 7, and Cabra in particular, where former corporation houses with gardens in walking distance of the city centre are selling well.
"We had almost 25 instructions in May. It all comes down to price of course. We would have multiple bidding now on one property, and what is selling is property in the €200,000-€300,000 bracket. One of the nicest homes we sold recently, off the New Cabra Road, had eight bidders chasing it. The property was on the market for €295,000. There was a lot of interest because it was in walk-in condition and realistically priced. It sold for €300,000."
Doherty estimates that the drop from peak in the area is now around 40%. He has also sold a couple of properties over €400,000 to first-time buyers – surprising, surely, as they must have needed huge mortgages at a time when banks are holding tight on financing? "These would be couples who held back during the boom and have been renting over five years or so. They now have the opportunity to buy the house they want at the right price."
But there was bad news for first-time buyers last week with the announcement from EBS that it has restricted mortgage approval even further. The lender also says it will no longer provide mortgages for apartments in rural towns. On the other hand, granting loans to those who would struggle to make repayments is unfair in the long run – and it's one of the reasons the market crashed in the first place.
Elsewhere, there has been a ripple of activity in the auction market, with two results for properties in south Co Dublin and Wicklow achieving in excess of the guide. In the case of the second property, a large bungalow in The Burnaby which fetched €910,000, the AMV of €650,000 might have brought about a degree of feverish bidding not seen for some time.
Back at the lower end, Doherty says the panic of old is no longer there among the buyers he deals with. "People do a lot of research now before they buy. They are very clued-in to asking prices in the same area, what is selling and what is not. Inevitably, that means it's taking much longer to sell a property."
Which is as it should be for what is still the most expensive (falling prices or not) purchase anyone makes in a lifetime.
In the days before the "boom", if an average worker on an average wage walked into a bank or building society and said he intended to purchase a house for ten times his annual wages, the Manager would have gently reminded him that it would be most unwise to think in terms of a house costing more than 3 to 4 times his annual wages. If the customer then added that the house was an "average house", the manager would have found it difficult not to laugh out loud. Yet the above article triumphantly proclaims that the "average" house in Dublin is now (wait for it) 342K. About ten times the average wage.
If you divide 342K by two. That's about what the "average" house should cost.
Still cloud cuckoo land!
The banks are still eating our children !
The real drop in house prices is at least 70% from boom highs and likely to drop another 20% this year, for cash buyers.
Banks are quietly off-loading houses at discounts of up to 80% on boom price tags, to canny cash buyers with existing links to the banks. New first buyers, instead, are being sold mortgages for similar properties with prices inflated by sellers like the authors of this piece of dodgy advertising.
So I'm sure every cash-buyer is wondering how to get on the banks' list of people who will be offered property at a knock-down price?
Most of us have heard of such deals - but how does Joe or Mary Public get on this list?
You're right Jack- my brother's buddy just bagged a lovely apartment for 100k
in Dublin- it was marketed for 250K at the boom rates...
The reality check is well and truly underway-
I just bagged a fix me upper in Naumburg
Germany for 8k-
I'm now off later in June to Cusco Peru where my best friend has the most beautiful holiday home- brought for only 28k- so I guess ole Ireland is starting to come back to reality-
Finbar you do make me chuckle but your maths do make sense... and on that basis
I'd say the average price of Irish property should be 120k to 150k-
Wait for it- NAMA will make it happen...
Finbar your dreams are slowly coming true but hold back.I read about distressed sales outside Dublin yesterday at "knock down" prices.They are still overpriced.Also the Mount Merrion house featured in this paper a couple of weeks ago for Eur600k is featured in todays Irish Times at Eur550k.Still way overpriced.The country is basically bankrupt so wait.You will buy three quarters of Dublin at at an 60 to 80% discount to todays "knock down" prices in 10 years time.As for where to invest your money in the meantime try the Far East excluding Japan stock markets.Ireland is in a slow transition downwards.Get your money out before we break the link with the Euro.
Anthony
I have a feeling that yesterday's sale of property in Carrickmines Green will send a short-sharp-shock through the still over-priced Dublin property market. A spanking new 4-bed house for 350K - and in a salubrious South Dublin neighbourhood!
And more of these fire-sales to come, we're told!
Just wait 'till the fire-sales start competing with each other for buyers!
Hmmm!
Maybe your sad-suburban-3 bed-semi "needing some modernisation" and "reduced to sell" at 450K aint looking so attractive now!
If I was one of the poor sods who was conned into buying any house over the past five years, that is already way less valuable than then and likely to cripple them financially for life, I would be angry.
But unlike the average Irish sheep, I would do something about it. I would start by writing to the ECB and asking them what controls and sanctions are available to EU citizens de-frauded by their politicians with links to banks and builders who voted in the rules that allowed this to happen, to serve their own personal interests?
I would start a campaign in the media and at local door-step level to get a petition started for a constitutional ammendment to deny any politician the right to vote on any issue with any financial advantage to him, his or her family, lovers or close friends. Same ammendment would require all politicians to formally declare IN PUBLIC AND FOR PUBLICATION all links to anyone in receipt of public contracts, tax incentives, planning permissions, favourable state decisions of any nature, BEFORE being asked to vote on any decision with relevance to said links.
This is not "pie-in-the-sky" although a barrister could write it better. However, Ireland is a land of dumb, complaqcent, lazy, often corrupt sheep. So, no, it probably will not happen, despite our children being left without a future apart from crime or drug abuse, while Cowen and his disgusting caste and their well fed children continue to live the fat-cat lives they believe we owe them.
Name and address with the debt agency........
I recently sold a multi unit Georgian on the Northside which I purchased in '79 and made numerous renovations. It's market peak was 1.2 million value..absurd . It sold it for 425,000, this is the real value.The market has fallen by 75% and don't let anyone fool you.
I was at the carricmines 'development' at the weekend. What a sham. Built on a roundabout, no facilities, no rental potential. A deeply depressing sight. These apartments are still significantly overvalued.
What do people expect when during the "boom" only 10-14.5K hectares were zoned for development.There is approx 6.9 million hectares in Ireland.that works out at approximately 1 in 500 of all hectares being zoned.It was a highly artifical restriction.You cannot possibly have such a system without corruption.the Justice Kenny report in the seventies had recommended that the government should have the right to purchase land at agricultural cost but vested interests have prevented this from happening.Remember that Irish farms without subsidies currently make a loss of €6k.land costs at the peak were more than 50% the cost of the house.
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Property prices in Ireland are still way overpriced ,these estate agents will always talk the housing market up, it pays their bills if they can get an fool to part with their money.Anybody who borrows to buy or pays for these overpriced properties now would be very unwise as the prices are going to continue to fall for some time to come and by double digit percentages.