On 23 June, the NTMA sold €6bn of ten-year paper for repayment in 2019. To borrow the money, the agency had to pay an annual interest rate of about 5.8%, representing a huge 244 basis points (2.4%) above Germany's debt paper, because international buyers needed reassurance about riskier eurozone countries, such as Ireland.
Since then, Irish sovereign interest rates have slid 70 basis points to just above 5%, a dramatic drop. In the past month, Irish rates dropped faster than the 46 basis-point fall for Greece, the 42 basis-point decrease for Portugal and Italy's 22 basis-point fall. With German interest rates little changed in the same period, the difference – or spread – between Ireland and Germany had therefore narrowed to 164 basis points (1.64%) on Friday from 244 a month ago.
The government's bad bank plans can take only a little of the credit: there have been big falls in other European rates too. In the past week British rates were alone among the big borrowers in the EU to record a significant rise, to 3.8%. But Capital Economics commented last week: "The recent decline in the spread between German and other eurozone bond yields is an encouraging sign that rising fiscal deficits in the region are unlikely to lead peripheral governments' interest rates to spiral higher".
It's not all good news. Capital Economics fears rates will not fall much lower and doubts "that spreads will return to their early 2007 levels even after the recession is well and truly over".
It appears Irish taxpayers will be paying higher rates for years to come.