Live register figures published this week will show another steady rise in the numbers claiming welfare while fears are growing that the monthly figures will leap again if many of the 50,000 students who annually complete their schooling and third-level education fail to find work this autumn, analysts said.

The new figures are expected to show a large increase on the number of 413,500 which signed on the register, lifting the jobless rate at the end of July to well above 12% for the first time since the late 1990s. Goodbody Stockbrokers' chief economist Dermot O'Leary, who forecasts that unemployment will peak at 17.5% at the end of next year, said that despite slowing in recent months, the shake out in construction and service industries, such as retail, had further to go.

In June, 11,400 more people joined the register count, down from monthly increases of 20,000 recorded in the early part of the year.

Construction jobs, already down by a third from their boom-time peak of 285,000, are likely to fall to 130,000 by the end of next year, while the 313,000 people who once worked in retail, wholesale and distribution had fallen to 284,000 this summer. "Though not directly comparable, our 17.5% forecast will leave the Live Register count at just under 500,000," O'Leary said.

Other economists say there is growing uncertainty about whether school and college leavers will stay off the live register at the end of the summer. The count could rise sharply if many of the 50,000 students fail to stay on at school or college.

The numbers signing on has created large queues at social welfare offices and the Department of Social and Family Affairs is looking at the possibility of allowing people use mobile phones to certify themselves as seeking jobseekers' benefit.