Brian Cowen: take me to your leadership

They are well camouflaged at present but the Taoiseach has important qualities – intellect, determination, intuition and fearlessness. He also has a complete lack of interest in courting popularity, an unusual and not unappealing characteristic in a political figure. In difficult times it has another effect, creating the sense of a man with a bunker mentality playing a cautious game for fear of making a mistake. This is undermining his government. We need to see him and hear him. We need leadership. That is what he is paid to do. He needs to cut away from his senior civil servants and take control on his terms.

We need a vision of how we are going to manage our way out of this mess. We need reassurance that Brian Cowen has a plan and that he can execute it. The worst that could happen is that his vision and plan fail to materialise or that the world goes through further convulsions that render that plan useless before it has taken hold. At the heart of Cowen's inertia is an overwhelming fear that by leading from the front he will fail and fail spectacularly. Only a conservative man would, in these extraordinary times, take such a cautious low-risk approach.

In order to better understand this it is worth reflecting on how Cowen became Taoiseach. He is principled but also conservative and consensual. In leadership terms he is more Jack Lynch than either Charles Haughey or Bertie Ahern. As a policy maker he is more Richard Bruton than Charlie McCreevy. Cowen's ministerial CV is short of dramatic personal decisions or interventions and his most notable achievements were long deliberated over and planned.

Similarly, as proceedings in Dublin Castle became more damaging for Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil, Cowen refused to consider making a move because short of Bertie being found to have personally raided the national mint, Cowen could not see or would not allow himself see sufficient grounds for encouraging Ahern to go.

That was until Ahern's position became untenable in March 2008 when his former secretary, Grainne Carruth, gave evidence. The stark factual account allowed Cowen change tack. He had worked well with Ahern but his failure to act earlier was not about protecting a close political ally or personal friend. His legal mind was fixated on the lack of definitive evidence. His political savvy had told him a long time previously the direction in which the inquiries were going but Cowen's style is to reflect on events, not to react.

While some had wanted Cowen to act sooner, those closest to him were not surprised by his hesitancy. Moving sooner carried risk that would have led to a damaging split in the party. That old failing of senior Fianna Fáil figures to put the party ahead of the nation meant Ahern's tenure as taoiseach was extended well beyond what should have been allowed. Ironically, Ahern's interest in the welfare of his party was so reduced by then that Cowen's judgement, even in terms of that narrow party agenda, turned out to be flawed.

When Cowen did move against Ahern it was swift and bloodless. It allowed him to accede to the throne without any leadership contest as Cowen facilitated the myth that Ahern had stepped down of his own volition. While it was managed expeditiously it had been carefully planned. There was no debate on the need for him to go and no flexibility on the timeframe. Where Cowen was flexible was in the manner of Ahern's departure. Ego is not a big factor in Cowen's make-up so he was content to allow his leadership move be presented as an accommodation or agreement with Ahern.

The nature of his accession tells us a lot about the man who leads our government. He is highly intelligent but deeply cautious. We should not be surprised by the approach he has taken to the job of taoiseach. Those who want him to be more visible and more vocal need to realise that Cowen generally thinks carefully through all the permutations before he acts. His instincts are good, but the more time he has spent at the frontline of Irish politics the less he has trusted them.

It should be acknowledged that he has relegated the interests of Fianna Fáil behind those of the country. He is pursuing a policy approach that would be ruinous to the short-term prospects of any party and in the case of Fianna Fáil, particularly so. Should government continue on its current course, with the certainty of another tough budget in December, the Fianna Fáil party may well be damaged for generations.

Cowen is obliged to put the country's interests ahead of his party and deserves no bouquets for doing so but he has failed to see that, were he to lead from the front, take the necessary risks and challenge the nation to subscribe to his vision his government's standing would improve dramatically. Fianna Fáil would be carried in its wake.

This brings us back to the nature of the problem – the Taoiseach's failure to grab the mood of the people who want reassurance those in charge have a plan and believe in that plan. It cannot be about certainty. It must be about hope. It is about the courage to say we are in the mire but we are carefully plotting a course which will protect this country's interests. It is about bold statements of intent and about motivating those who are open to persuasion that they have a role to play in getting Ireland going again. Brian Cowen has not done this because the system has used the economic turmoil to prod his conservative side to the fore. It will cost him government and is already damaging Fianna Fáil.