Pat McArdle: new Dr Doom?

Are Irish banks now the ultimate canaries in the economic coal mine?

As we pass through the first quarter, to everyone's surprise, it is Irish banks and Irish stockbrokers, for years castigated for their cheerleading and blind belief in the economy, who are offering the most unvarnished assessments of our economic prospects.

Call it a gloomfest, call is bear mania, but it is Ulster Bank and Davy Stockbrokers, both of whom went a little crazy during the boom, who are leading the way in telling their clients just how badly sunk we are or may be.

Ulster Bank's economist Pat McCardle, as of last week, is the new Dr Doom for Ireland, with a hair-raising projection that the Irish economy will plunge by 8% in GDP terms this year. We have to take him seriously because he was one of the least-wrong economists last year.

Rossa White at Davy is also donning his finest hairshirt with a forecast of a 6.7% GDP slowdown in 2009, and rival Goodbody is not far behind.

And yes, don't even bother asking. Yes, the government is included among the optimists once more, with the Department of Finance more keen on recessions than depressions. It is predicting the shrinkage will amount to no more than 4%.