The smaller Irish lenders, Irish Nationwide, Anglo Irish, IL&P and EBS, will be told this week by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan that they need to consider whether there is any point in them remaining independent after Nama has taken ownership of their toxic property loans.

While Lenihan has decided not to be "pres­crip­tive" about re-structuring the banking system, his speech on Wednesday will firmly point out that so-called 'peripheral' players must consider their futures once Nama is underway. He will ask the board of each of the lenders to consider how they might consolidate into a new structure.

The Sunday Tribune has learned that Lenihan's speech will sketch out how many banks are likely to be independent once Nama has completed its work. The structure of the sector will also be influenced by changes planned to be made to the bank guarantee scheme.

The government will make it clear that the state stands behind the banks regardless of the level of writedowns they will have to take arising from Nama. Most attention is likely to fall on AIB on Wednesday and many believe the bank has no long-term future as an independent entity. Last week the government was pushing for an outsider from a national US bank to take over.

In what is described as a "minimalist" statement, Lenihan will not spell out the detailed capital requirements of each bank on Wednesday, preferring instead to wait until all loans have been valued before making that clear.

Any refusal to spell out the capital requirements of the banks in the period ahead is likely to be met with a frosty reception from the market and Nama opponents, who have already complained about a lack of transparency in how the agency is being set up.

While an overall estimate of the 'haircut' or discount on the Irish bank's loan books will be provided, it looked increasingly likely this weekend that figures for the discount on individual bank loan books would not be given, despite demands from stockbrokers and other investors.

Instead, Wednesday's speech will contain information on the assumptions behind the overall discount figure and government views on the state of the property market.

There is also the possibility that one of the foreign-owned banks in the Irish market could be brought in to form part of a 'third force' in Irish banking.

It is understood the EU, which is concerned about maintaining competition within the single market, is partly behind the third force discussions and believes the banks remaining after the big two are dealt with will be too small and under resourced to provide competition in the Irish market.