As Ireland spirals towards its endgame, I have looked across the Atlantic for some inspiration about our path into the future. Recovery and growth is the only game we need to play from here. If you want more misery-lit writing, you can skip this column now. If you want to deepen your depression, my writing will not be for you.
The IMF's coming to town is going to force the restructuring that our politicians could not achieve. It's a sad indictment of the delay-and-pray politics that the two Brians seem to favour: Why make a decision today when it can be delayed until tomorrow? This policy is deeply embedded in the Fianna Fáil psyche and it stems from the Charlie Haughey years. He survived some of his long nights by playing for time. It may have worked for him but it does not work for Ireland in the Great Recession.
The IMF will implement the change that should set our political system and society on a new path. I want to take inspiration from this change and the long-term potential it offers us all. I think this is far better than wallowing in the pain of short-term adjustments.
We must remember as the IMF arrives that it will also leave. We have not handed over our sovereignty, as the hysterics have screamed. We are simply bust due to the bank guarantee, and we need to restructure under the shadow of the IMF.
The persistent lying by all the banks has now shown its effects, and Lenihan's naivety in believing their fraud still amazes me. The banks were bust in 2008 and they knew it. Even the dogs in the street knew it. They are still bust today. Filling them with more new cash is throwing good money after bad.
In June 2009, General Motors entered bankruptcy court in New York, after several soft and failed reorganisations. This phase of the company's existence can be compared to the performance of the government here. Chapter 11 for GM can be compared to the arrival of the IMF. The era of soft reorganisations and crony protectionism is over; the real restructuring now begins.
GM received $50bn in state loans up to and through Chapter 11. At the time, this money seemed dead, like the company. Last week, as the IMF private jet landed, General Motors was refloated on the New York stock exchange in America's largest ever IPO; $20.1bn worth of shares were sold and the new lean and mean company is back in profit. The government still holds billions worth of shares and it seems President Barack Obama might have saved the US car industry at virtually no cost.
What happened to create this amazing result? Entering Chapter 11, GM was seen as a basket case, much like Ireland at the moment. In the years approaching its restructuring, it was run a little like our public service. Everybody was on a great salary and had a great pension, and employee healthcare costs were a major part of every car's cost. These costs were driving the company into the ground. Sound familiar?
Like Ireland, GM built up a huge debt pile, postponing its day of reckoning. Executives rushed around in the same private planes our government uses. As the company was restructured, the planes were grounded and the austerity began.
The medicine that cured GM was simple, and it is the same medicine we need in Ireland today. The first key step that GM took was to write off and restructure its mountain of debt. The bondholders squirmed but they did not run. Nobody confused this default with the American national debt and the same would be true for our banks if Lenihan had any steel in his veins.
With its debt pile crammed down all that was left for GM was to cut its bloated payroll and pension costs. This was swiftly achieved with the support of the unions, because they recognised value in its survival. Our slouchy public sector needs the same medicine. A very large number of public servants in Ireland are vastly overpaid, and fixing this does not affect frontline services. GM still makes millions of cars a year with a lower payroll cost, and Ireland can be the same in productivity terms. It's tough medicine, but it works.
We will exit this process in better shape than we are in today. So come on in, boys, and let the real work begin.