With one national bailout almost agreed with the IMF and the EC to ensure the insolvent Irish banks keep their doors open, Behind the Numbers considers the big question governments around the world are asking: can Ireland escape trashing its chances of regaining sovereignty and avoid defaulting on its bond debts?

The conditions of the first bailout of course will decide whether Ireland defaults on its sovereign debt. The banking bailout will have to include other huge pots of money if Ireland is to be saved from defaulting and to help the state sometime in the future get back onto the sovereign bond markets to borrow at reasonable rates.

Paradoxically, the less money advanced by the IMF, EU and the Euro Group, the greater the risk that Ireland will default. First, it is hard to see how the state can afford to pay an annual interest bill off if it has to repay a €100bn banking bailout at 5% interest over the next three years. The annual interest bill of €5bn would be unbearable for an economy that will likely contract further.

Until the European Central Bank in recent weeks decided to turn the tap off, our corrupt banks were being subsidised at low-low loan rates of 1%. The effective annual cost of the loans cannot under EU law be less than the 5% rate Greece is paying for its bailout cash for three years. Ireland may nonetheless need softer repayment terms stretched over many years.

This weekend, the sovereign debt insurance markets continue to signal a significant risk that Ireland will be forced to default on its bond payments. With a probability of 36%, or more than a 2:1 chance, Ireland remains the sixth-most likely in the world – after Bolivia, Greece, Argentina, Pakistan and Ukraine – to default, according to CMA Datavision.