I watched the opening salvos from the Four Courts with great interest last week. Paddy McKillen is taking on the mighty Nama and both sides have lined out their A sides for this match. Behind McKillen, chanting from a small corner of the terraces, are the other developers praying for a victory. This is definitely an away match for the property tycoons and the stadium is filled with the home supporters, the people of Ireland. I am definitely a homer on this one – fully decked out in the green.
McKillen has spent a lot of time outside Ireland in recent years. He appears to have an image of his property empire that does not reflect the reality of the market, as I know it. He also seems out of tune with the national crisis, and our need to pull together. We need to generate liquidity for our banking system and the state itself, and disposing of property is a key part of this puzzle
McKillen's portfolio is reported to have debts of €2.1bn and a rent roll of about €150m. Michael Cush, McKillen's barrister, has told the court that these assets are valued at €1.7bn to €2.28bn. At this point, it should clearly be game set and match because in my opinion this property portfolio can finance its interest cost but it cannot significantly reduce its principal debt or roll over the capital on the loans. The attorney general has correctly pointed out that plenty of time has now passed to permit the refinancing of these loans. In truth, they cannot be refinanced without a signification injection of new equity. This is the plain truth that McKillen cannot understand or does not want to face. He is not alone in this mindset, but this kind of thinking is flawed. The game has changed.
The new facts of the property business are simple and they apply to everybody, including Paddy McKillen. Significant equity is now required to purchase any property asset. I know a lot of people who choose to ignore these facts, but they are still facts. I suspect the lower range of his valuation is accurate for this portfolio. A portfolio of this nature with a rent roll of €150m could probably raise debt of about €1.1bn. This is a long way short of the €2.1bn that is reported to be outstanding and that is the crux of the issue.
Banks do not have an obligation to roll over loans, and I am willing to bet that a large number of these loan facilities are past their expiry date.
Putting the accountancy aside for a moment, I am still confused by McKillen's motives. His portfolio is clearly in better condition than many others, but it should still be transferred to Nama. The toxic bank is saving us from the lies and mistruths of our bankers. Leaving these loans behind in the various dysfunctional banks would be crazy. I think economist Joseph Stiglitz is wrong in his contention that Nama does not have the skills to manage this kind of portfolio. The failure of the Irish banking system has been so great that it serves to prove that competency is a rare thing in Ireland.
I have observed these 'skilled' bankers manage out various properties through the receivership process and their performance leaves a lot to be desired. To describe Irish bankers as incompetent is to give them the highest complement. I would respectfully suggest that Stiglitz spend some time here getting to know us before bestowing his opinion on us, and passing judgment on our crisis.
If ever there was a time when Irish people needed to put their personal positions behind the national need, it is now. I have no doubt McKillen can prosper and flourish from within Nama. I also believe they can work with him in a fair and open manner to achieve the best results for Ireland. McKillen has the skills and the passion to earn his fortune again and he has nothing to fear from Nama. I only wish he would use his money and skill to support the nation, rather than filling the pockets of the barristers and his list of star witnesses. We need new leaders for this country in this time of crisis and McKillen could choose to be one. I hope the man from the grainy black and white photo can step forward into the multicolour age and join the home fans in green.