For the third week in a row, two of the top five teams in the country go head-to-head and it could turn out this one might need a replay as well.

From the outside Derry's preparations would seem to be in turmoil with the suspension of Fergal Doherty and James Kielt's broken jaw at the hand of the internally-suspended James Conway. But that would be a lazy analysis. Conway had been a marginal panel player since Damian Cassidy assumed the reins and the only fallout from the saga is the unavailability of the accurate but light-framed Kielt, who may not have started anyway with such a premium on winning carpet ball and kickouts to the wing likely today. Inside the Derry camp morale is high as is confidence.

That confidence primarily stems from having a coach of Cassidy's calibre. In him they see their own young Mickey Harte, though possibly unaware of just how much he's been influenced by Harte. For instance, it didn't escape Cassidy's attention one of the main reasons why Tyrone won last year's All Ireland and Fermanagh beat Derry en route to last year's Ulster final was that they possessed two of the four highest-scoring half-back lines and midfields in the country. In the era of Harte half-forwards are the new half-backs and half-backs are the new half-forwards and Derry under Cassidy have finally moved with the times. They may not have an identifiable scoring wing-back in the mould of Davy Harte or Tommy McElroy but in half of their league games, the Derry half-backs either outscored or scored as much their own half-forward line, and only once did that unit fail to score at all – in the league final, when they had a makeshift trio operating in that line.

As much as Cassidy has tried to widen his team's scoring spread, so much still hinges around the Bradley brothers. In patches last month Armagh got great joy out of getting early ball into Clarke and McDonnell and while Derry can't expect to get seven or eight points from play from such a tactic and such a tandem, they will need at least five.

For all Derry's method and talent though, this is ultimately a test of Tyrone's desire. They've tripped up at this stage before, like against Donegal in 2004, but they can surely see that this is effectively an Ulster final and a win today would save them the bother of another long summer through the backdoor which such a veteran side with some key old hands carrying injuries could do without. Derry will test that desire – no side won more breaking ball in the league – but unless Mark Lynch finally delivers in a big game, the sense is they're without too many big names and big men – McCusker, McCloy, Muldoon, Doherty – from their half-forward line back.

This game should be much easier on the eye than most Derry-Tyrone games – there isn't another rivalry in modern inter-county GAA that has failed so spectacularly and consistently to produce, entertaining, sporting fare in the championship, the 2002 qualifier in Casement being about their only clash the neutral could enjoy – but it will still be attritional. Tyrone have enough players fighting for places to fight for that loose ball and have a manager smart enough to curb if not quite stop the Bradleys, and take his chances on the Derry middle eight trying to score enough to win.

Tyrone, just about, but Kerry will be hoping they won't have to meet the loser of this before August.

Verdict Tyrone by two

ULSTER SFC SEMI-FINAL

TYRONE v DERRY

Casement Park, 2.00

Live, RTÉ Two (1.30), BBC 2 (1.45)

Referee G Ó Conamha (Galway)

TYRONE J Devine; PJ Quinn, Justin McMahon, R McMenamin; D Harte, C Gormley, P Jordan; K Hughes, E McGinley, M Penrose, T McGuigan, Joe McMahon, S O'Neill, S Cavanagh, O Mulligan

derry B Gillis, K McGuckin, SM Lockhart, G O'Kane; C McKaigue, B McGuigan, SL McGoldrick; B McGoldrick, J Diver; E Brown, P Murphy, E Lynn; E Bradley, P Bradley, M Lynch