What a difference two months can make. Nine weeks have come and gone since Limerick and Waterford played out one of the worst championship matches in living memory, an excruciating game of 20 scores at Semple Stadium. It's fair to venture that not too many of the spectators in a sodden Thurles that day would have put money on the pair of them reaching the All Ireland semi-finals had they been offered odds. But reach the semi-finals they did.

What's more, Waterford put up a highly respectable performance last Sunday against the hottest of hot favourites. Tipperary are the hottest of hot favourites for the second of the semi-finals. If Waterford could acquit themselves with distinction, there seems no logical reason why Limerick cannot and will not do the same. That, though, is not the same as saying they'll win.

All year it's looked as if the season would come down to a Kilkenny-Tipperary showdown on the first Sunday of September. This consensus took on a new conviction after the National League final, and nothing we've seen in the meantime suggests that these fiercest of rivals won't be marching behind the Artane Band in three weeks' time. Kilkenny have their Croke Park ticket already booked. Tipperary can follow suit today.

The one fly in the ointment has been the Munster champions' habit of fading out of matches during the second half. They did so against Cork in the first round. They did so again versus Clare in the semi-final, and against Waterford they were cruising at half-time, 3-10 to 2-4 ahead, before switching off and having only four points to spare in the end.

Is it complacency? Is it immaturity? Is it a mixture of both? My own belief is that it's six of one and half a dozen of the latter. This, remember, is a young Tipperary team. Sometimes they appear surprised by their own superiority, so fluently are they hurling and so neatly are they picking off their points. But this is an age in which fitness is paramount, meaning that both sides get the opportunity to perform for a period in a game. It can be difficult to stop opponents when they get into a groove, even if they've been trailing. Especially, perhaps, if they've been trailing. Tipp have had a problem in this regard all year.

Hurling ability is not the issue. The Tipperary players are no less talented at the end of a match than they are at the beginning. In point of fact, their forward play this year has been as exciting as anything we've seen from Kilkenny. What they've been lacking to date is Kilkenny's application and talent for closing out a game. But this should come in time. Liam Sheedy and his players are learning as they go along. It would be very strange if they weren't.

What Tipperary do possess in abundance, and what Limerick lack, is scoring forwards. Tipperary are able to score at their ease; Limerick are not. All other things being equal, this could be the deciding factor today, because certainly you'd say that the Limerick defence is as good as the Tipperary defence – maybe even more so, for the centre of the Tipp defence has not been as settled as it was last year.

Paul Curran hasn't been hurling as well at full-back as he did in 2008. He went off injured in the Munster final and starts in the corner today, with Padraic Maher switching to the edge of the square. No doubt Tipperary are mindful of the size and strength of Paudie McNamara (left), Limerick's giant of a full-forward, who scored a memorable goal against Dublin in the quarter-final, and have decided that Maher is better equipped than Curran to match him physically. No doubt too that Liam Sheedy and his selectors took note of what transpired between Aidan Kearney and Henry Shefflin seven days ago. Conor O'Mahony, the current All Star centre-back, is another Tipp man who has yet to recover his best form, in his case due to a debilitating bout of mumps during the spring.

For Limerick, Stephen Lucey and Brian Geary have been consistently solid along the spine of their defence, with Lucey now helped by the lessening in his workload following the departure of the footballers from the championship at the hands of Meath. But it's in attack where the main difference between the team lies. This should be the deciding factor.

To be fair to Justin McCarthy's men, they did extremely well to come out of Wexford Park with a win on a dreadful Saturday evening in the qualifiers last month. In the conditions, against a younger and lighter Wexford outfit, their size and experience were crucial. But they struggled against Laois in the next round and they struggled some more against Dublin in the All Ireland quarter-final. Of the 2-18 they hit in that game, only 1-5 issued from play; and this against a nervy and inexperienced back line to boot. The other goal was scored by their goalkeeper from a penalty, Gavin O'Mahony landed eight points from placed balls and Andrew O'Shaughnessy converted five frees.

The presence of Ollie Moran at his fittest and sharpest would be a boost today. But will he be? Which or whether, the underdogs will need goals this afternoon. Plenty of goals. They got them against Waterford in the 2007 semi-final, when five goals, added to 11 points, pushed them over the winning line. It's a bit much to expect lightning to strike a second time, though.

On the basis that semi-finals can take on a life of their own, as Waterford discovered that afternoon, we shouldn't overlook a potential x-factor. Tipperary's record in Croke Park since 2001 is, frankly, dire. They've lost three All Ireland quarter-finals, three semi-finals and a National League final there. This statistic should give Limerick, who've won a semi-final at the venue much more recently than Tipp, a degree of hope. On the other hand, it will also serve to focus Tipperary minds.

The Munster champions will play fast, open hurling, moving the sliotar wide at pace and seeking to spread the Limerick defence. Shane McGrath seems to be recovering his best form, Lar Corbett is flying and Seamus Callanan is always good for a goal. To me, it's a winning formula.

The first of the semi-finals proved a thoroughly enjoyable affair last Sunday. The most encouraging aspect of it was that the losers emerged with their pride restored and their confidence renewed. That's important for Waterford going forward. They'll now be able to face 2010 in good heart.

Sure, they made mistakes last Sunday, the most damaging of them being the decision to leave Eoin Kelly in the full-forward line for so long. Kelly is such a fine striker of the ball that he can put points over from anywhere. Whoever is managing Waterford next year should vow to play Kelly at wing-forward and nowhere else.

The adopted Passage man nearly scored the goal of the year in the closing minutes, only to be denied by an instant-reaction stop from PJ Ryan that was as good as any save witnessed at Croke Park in recent years. Kilkenny will have been pleased with that and pleased also with their overall performance. I thought they were good. Those reports of their demise that followed that night on The Sunday Game and in the papers next day? Sorry, but I don't see it that way.

For example, Brian Cody now has to decide whether to leave John Tennyson where he is at wing-back after the Carrickshock man's fine performance or to restore Noel Hickey and switch JJ Delaney back to the wing. Not a bad option to have. Not a bad dilemma to have.

All year, as I said earlier, it's been shaping up as a Kilkenny-Tipperary All Ireland final. Tipp to complete their part of the bargain today.

lgriffin@tribune.ie