All Ireland SHC semi-final: Limerick v Tipperary, Croke Park, 3.30, Referee B Gavin (Offaly), Live RTE Two, 1.00

The main reason why Tipperary will, barring a catastrophe or an act of God, win today and proceed to give the holders plenty of it on 6 September as follows. They are, unlike Limerick and unlike Kilkenny's opponents in each of the last three All Ireland finals, an improving team. Which is not to say they're anything like the finished product, never mind as rounded or worldly a proposition as the Tipperary of 2001, a side that were far more accustomed to close-run things and consequently eventually inured against narrow defeats. But they're getting there.

It is all at once a no-win game, a must-win game and a should-win game for the favourites. It is, similarly, a must-perform game for Lar Corbett in view of his eclipse here 12 months ago. The Tipp forward who in concert with Seamus Callanan does most to locate space, turn the key and open up enemy defences, Corbett doesn't have to defeat Limerick single-handedly. Finding gaps between the full-back and half-back lines and knocking over a couple of points will suffice. Doing his bit, in other words.

At this remove the Munster final seems to have taken place so long ago that one struggles to find an entrail of significance. But three passing observations. First off, Tipp had Waterford anaesthesised a sight sooner than Kilkenny did. Secondly, in a rehash of a remark made here on the morning of the provincial final, they're not hitting enough points from play. When it comes down to it today or next month, what will Pat Kerwick, John O'Brien, Callanan and, yes, even Eoin Kelly muster from out the field between them? Finally, the siting at full-back of Padraic Maher today smacks of a dry run for an encounter with Henry Shefflin.

Limerick are roast beef with none of the trimmings. They may not be here by default, but they do owe their participation today to the luck of a draw they couldn't have arranged better themselves. So be it. You play the cards as they fall to you.

They won't win a shootout. They may win a struggle. Accomplishing the latter, though, will necessitate them starting better than they've been starting their games to date. Nor should one lump too much in the way of expectation on the shoulders of James Ryan, the Mike Fitzgerald of 2009 and until lately regarded as a labourer rather than a finisher.

Ryan to have a blinder; Paul Browne to snipe a couple of points from play; David Breen – the most improbable of corner-forwards – to be clinical with his striking; Andrew O'Shaughnessy to wind back the clock to this day two years ago. Each of these occurrences could unfold. But scarcely all of them together.

The optimum outcome today for the favourites is a hard-fought win by four or five points. Tipperary to manage it and to condemn a thousand Kilkenny men of uncertain age to a fitful sleep tonight.

Limerick B Murray; D Reale, S Lucey, M O'Riordan; S Hickey, B Geary, M Foley; D O'Grady, G O'Mahony; J Ryan, O Moran, P Browne; D Breen, P McNamara, A O'Shaughnessy.

Tipperary B Cummins; P Stapleton, P Maher, P Curran; D Fanning, C O'Mahony, B Maher; J Woodlock, S McGrath; P Kerwick, S Callanan, J O'Brien; N McGrath, E Kelly, L Corbett.