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The Glory Without The Glitter

It would be all over by Wednesday, you know. If mentally, not to mention physically, wounded Mancester United fail to do better than draw this afternoon against a Blackburn side that have only been beaten twice at Ewood Park this season, and then Arsenal are unable to earn more than a point in what's bound to be a tempestuous north London derby against Tottenham at White Hart Lane on Wednesday, a Chelsea victory the previous evening against Bolton at Stamford Bridge will have Carlo Ancelotti's men grasping the Premier League trophy by one of its ears. That's the stage of the season we're at: one slip up by the two in the chasing pack and it could be all over. If all of the above was to happen, and it's not the most improbable scenario that has ever been committed to print, Chelsea could afford to lose to both Tottenham and Liverpool in their remaining four fixtures and still win the title on goal difference. Would they deserve it? Arguably, but only because they've been the best of an average lot so far in what has turned out to be a curious title race, writes Ciaran Cronin

Didier Drogba

Cesc Fabregas

Wayne Rooney

Manager of expectations: Harry Redknapp could hold the league title in his hands

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Chelsea in pole position

The Premier League title, according to both Alex Ferguson and the basic laws of mathematics, is theirs to lose but it has been a strange season for Chelsea. There has been little foreboding about them over the course of the season, nothing inevitable about the position they now find themselves in, no string of results that has had anybody shaking in their boots. They have been durable, consistent, occasionally flamboyant, but little else.

Except, that is, in their efforts against fellow title rivals Manchester United and Arsenal, where they have taken maximum points, 12 from 12. And it is in the examination of those games where you find their strength, in both a physical and mental sense. Against United, they had a clear focus going onto the pitch of what they wanted to achieve, coupled with an obstinate desire to make sure it came to pass; their two wins over Arsene Wenger's side earlier this season had their foundations in the athletic prowess of Didier Drogba.

The Ivorian has been the star of their season and his form between August and Christmas in particular granted Carlo Ancelotti some breathing space as he attempted to get his head around the English game. But while Drogba has been exceptional, crucially Chelsea's season hasn't depended on his form. He was away for the month of January at the African Cup of Nations and still the Blues chalked up five victories on the trot. And even in recent weeks, when he has been fitter, say, than Wayne Rooney has been, Ancelotti has taken the opportunity to try out a different way of playing, if not because he was wild on the idea of experimentation, then certainly because he realised that Jose Mourinho had figured out Chelsea's system. And if he had, you could guarantee that over time others would and that's why Ancelotti's side deserve to be ahead in the title race. They have displayed an ability to adapt to a new system at a crucial point in the season, a quality that neither United nor Arsenal have shown this term. Now, as well as having the option of lumping the ball up to Drogba and feeding off the crumbs, Chelsea are capable of passing the ball through midfield and utilising the ball-playing skills of Florent Malouda, Joe Cole and Deco to get a result.

But despite their options, there is little comparison to draw with Mourinho's back-to-back title-winning sides of 2005 and 2006. Back then, Chelsea posted winning points tallies of 95 and 91 respectively, the kind of figure that Ancelotti's vintage can't now match with five games to go. There was an aura about Chelsea in both those campaigns, a sense that they were the one side in the league who, if you managed to finish above, you'd be guaranteed to win the title. That air of invincibility certainly doesn't apply to the current lot but in some ways, Roman Abramovich should be a happier man. He has always wanted his team not just to win, but to win playing attractive football, and while Chelsea haven't been the prettiest team to watch this season, they have scored plenty of goals. In fact, with five games to go, they have already outscored their 2005 and 2006 title-winning sides by 12 goals in each season. And still Ancelotti doesn't consider himself an attacking coach.

However, this Chelsea side don't grab your attention because of the amount of goals they've scored. What stands out, despite seven-goal hauls against Sunderland and Aston Villa, is their hard-working attitude and their sheer stubbornness, both as individuals but, more importantly, as a unit. Those kind of qualities have seen them dominate opponents and they've proved over the course of the season that they have just about enough ability in the squad to take advantage of the mental and physical advantage they build in games.

In fact with a bit more talent in their squad, as Pat Nevin, the former Chelsea winger and now media pundit, observed this week, they would have had this league title sewn up weeks ago. "Often the complaint about Chelsea during the odd wobble this season has been that there isn't someone who could do something completely different. I have mused on it myself wondering whether an Arshavin, Ribery or Messi would have made Chelsea an unstoppable force because these players have that X-factor, that purest of ability to create something out of nothing using their skill and crucially imagination. When I watched Joe Cole's cute little back heel to make it 1-0, I thought, that's what I am talking about."

Yet Nevin's words tell their own story. Despite not really possessing anybody with that X- factor, a player with the ability to turn a game with a dip of the shoulder or a spark of imagination, they are firm favourites to win the title. Which says a lot about the others.

Arsenal - a progress of sorts

Nigel Winterburn, decent full-back that he was, is not generally regarded as a sage of the game but he summed up Arsenal's season nicely this week. "Back in August, if you'd have said Arsenal would go without a trophy for the fifth consecutive year, I'd have said the season had been a failure," he said. "But when you look at it, they're still in with a chance of the title with five games to go. Compared to last year, that's significant progress."

And while that's true in a pure linear sense, there are still a few questions to be answered when it comes to taking a holistic look at the club. The departures of Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor have been offset, more or less, by the purchases of Thomas Vermaelen and Andrey Arshavin and when you consider how players like Alex Song and Abou Diaby have matured in the past 12 months, they do appear a more complete outfit. Their numbers tell a similar story.

Last season, Arsenal won 20 games in total, drawing 12 but this season they're already recorded two more victories and those draws are down to five. They've scored more goals than last term, too, but despite their improvements, you cannot escape the feeling that the only reason they're actually in the title race – and they're only just in it, remember – is because Manchester United have allowed their standards to drop.

But that argument aside, there's no doubt that of the three teams in the title hunt, Arsenal lead the way on the aesthetics front. They have, and not for the first time in recent years, been far and away the best team to watch at the top end of the table and if anything they've been more attacking this term. Wenger has deployed a 4-3-3 system for most of the campaign but that only tells some of the story. Cesc Fabregas has basically operated in a free role behind the front three and with Arsenal's attacking four, as it were, regularly interchanging positions, they have carved most teams apart almost at will.

There are those who believe the injury to Robin van Persie, picked up in November, has effectively stopped Arsenal from leading the title race at this point in time but, apart from the debatable influence he might have had in the games home and away to Chelsea and at home to United, his side haven't really missed him. What they have missed, particularly in the games against the two sides above them in the league, is a work ethic and single-minded desire to win that their rivals have consistently displayed. Barcelona provided a vivid example of how effective footballing teams can be if they put as much of a premium on regaining possession as holding onto it and while Wenger seems to understand the theory, there appears to be a reluctance among some players to play the role of chaser.

That is at least part of the reason why Arsenal are the flat-track bullies of the title race. While their passing and movement is good enough to beat most teams in the division without having to work their backsides off attempting to regain the ball, their reluctance to close down opponents and really work to get the ball back has been exposed against Chelsea and Manchester United, from whom they have earned no points from four games.

And yet in some ways, beating most teams in the division – Arsenal have only lost to Manchester City and Sunderland besides the top two – represents progress. As mentioned already, Arsenal have drawn 12 games, 11 and 11 again in the past three seasons but with five games to go this time around, they've only shared the spoils on five occasions. They have begun to turn draws into victories, which is essentially why they're within striking distance of the title with five games to go, but they'll probably have to win five on the trot between now and the season's end if they're to cause one of the biggest recent upsets in the league.

They'll have to do it without Fabregas and William Gallas who are both more or less out until the end of the season, but for a club who could still end up Premier League champions come the second weekend in May, there seems to be an air of depression about the place since their humbling by Barcelona.

Wenger appears, finally, to have recognised that his side need an injection of serious, and costly, quality if they're to achieve the kind of things that he wants them to achieve in the next year or two. If he had reinforced his side with a bit more quality in the summer, Arsenal might well be the ones in front right now.

United lose star quality

It says something of the unpredictable nature of football that supporters are often startled when cause and effect are so closely correlated. But in the case of Manchester United this season, there shouldn't be any shock. The loss of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez in the summer, and Alex Ferguson's decision – perhaps guided at least in part by the financial situation at the club – not to directly replace either, was always going to lead to a situation where United weren't as competitive as they were last season. It's common sense, really.

Ferguson, you'd venture, took a calculated gamble that the players at his disposal were still good enough to get the better of Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. The man has a feel for football, a sixth sense when it comes to these things, but his intuition has messed him around a little this season. Take last weekend's game against Chelsea at Old Trafford, where Ferguson's starting eleven suggested that he didn't really rate the opposition all that highly. If he regarded Ancelotti's ensemble as a serious threat to United, would he really have played Gary Neville, Paul Scholes, Ji-Sung Park and Ryan Giggs in the one side?

United supporters, particularly after Wednesday's Champions League elimination, seem to be angry at how their season has panned out but really, they should be grateful that it's not much worse. Before Wayne Rooney's form shot up almost horizontally after Christmas, United had recorded five league defeats and were on course to lose somewhere in the region of ten games, a tally they haven't been near reaching since the nine defeats recorded when they finished third in 2003/04. Just so you have an idea of the quality in the United squad that particular season, or rather its absence, players like Roy Carroll, Tim Howard, Eric Djemba-Djemba, Quinton Fortune, Kleberson, David Bellion and Diego Forlan (when he was a joke) were in and around Ferguson's starting XI that campaign. That's what the current mob would no doubt have replicated if Rooney's form had not taken flight.

Of course, the England striker's quality isn't an accident – it has been carefully nurtured by Ferguson – but if the striker had weighed in with a tally of, say, 13 goals (his average league tally over his first five seasons at Old Trafford) and not the 26 he has managed so far this term, this United side would be closer to Man City and Tottenham in the league table than Chelsea or Arsenal.

Yet, in some ways, rather strangely it must be said, United are a more effective outfit than last season. In United's 38 games last season, they won 17 by a single goal; in 33 games so far this term, they've won just six by the smallest possible margin. Their 'goals for' column reflects exactly that. In 38 games last season, United have scored 68 goals; with five games remaining this season, they have already scored 77. And in one way, those numbers prove Ferguson's judgment to be partly correct. United are still better than most teams in the Premier League – and indeed further ahead of them this season than in recent years according to the statistics – despite losing a serious level of quality over the summer. Where the manager's theory falls short is in relation to Chelsea and Arsenal. Ferguson didn't, it would seem, foresee Chelsea maintaining their consistent standard of the past two seasons or, indeed, Arsenal marginally improving upon theirs.

He didn't figure either, you'd wager, that his collection of players would only be able to function in high-level fixtures playing just one way. Last season, if you saw Rooney, Ronaldo, Ryan Giggs and Tevez on the team-sheet, you wouldn't have been able to guess what way United would actually line out on the pitch. Not only could United play a number of different ways over the course of a season, they could also do so in the space of one game. This season, however, they have become utterly predictable. With Rooney up front on his own, Ferguson has deployed five midfielders behind him, two wingers and three central midfielders. The system has worked marvellously well at times, particularly against the sides in the league's bottom half, but the formation's straight-down-the-line nature merely allows United to be competitive with England, and indeed Europe's, top teams. Teams with such formations rarely rule the roost because their threat is quite visible, not latent. If there is a throwback, it's to the 1991/92 side which had Ryan Giggs tearing down one wing and Andrei Kanchelskis the other. They were exciting to watch and effective in going about their business but it wasn't until Eric Cantona arrived the following season, and United added another dimension to the way they played the game, that they won the title.

Ferguson clearly thought one approach would be good enough for his 19th title as United manager but with five games to go, it appears as though he has marginally miscalculated.

The Spurs effect: three games that will decide the title

Tottenham v Arsenal, 14 April

Despite their general dominance over their north London neighbours, Arsenal have won only two of their past eight league games at White Hart Lane. The six they haven't won have all been draws, a result which will be as bad as a defeat for Arsenal considering they need to win all their remaining league games to have any chance of lifting their first trophy since 2005. If Wednesday's task wasn't difficult enough in what's bound to be a frenzied environment against a Tottenham side desperate for all three points, Cesc Fabregas, Andrey Arshavin and William Gallas will all miss the game.

Manchester City v Manchester United, 17 April

Put simply, United need to win all five of their remaining games to win the title and this is the trickiest looking of the lot. The one league and two Carling Cup meetings between the sides this season have been frantic affairs, with United just about edging their neighbours overall, but with Roberto Mancini's side on the cusp of fourth, they're unlikely to be beaten in this game without a serious fight.

Tottenham v Chelsea, 17 April

Chelsea need to drop points for Manchester United to re-enter the title race and this London derby has a difficult look about it. Like Arsenal, Chelsea haven't had it all their own way against Tottenham at White Hart Lane recently, and it was a defeat against Harry Redknapp's side last year that put Guus Hiddink's side out of title race once and for all.

In the position they're in, Carlo Ancelotti will fancy his side to win the game but it's unlikely to be easy. Alex Ferguson will watch this one with fingers crossed.