Alex Ferguson said last Friday that a lot more people are enjoying this Premier League season because of its sheer unpredictability. It's unlikely anyone is enjoying it as much as Ferguson himself though. As it stands – the traditional signpost for the point at which the table has properly taken shape – his team were unbeaten and two points clear at the top with a game in hand. Plus ça change, aye? The most persistent winners of the Premier League over the past decade are in pole position again.

For the cynical, it's the most compelling argument against Ferguson's view – one which is now pretty widely held across the division. That same Friday for example, at the prompting of Sky Sports News reporters attending the weekly press conferences, almost every opposing manager made similar remarks to Ferguson. It's a view that suits an agenda of course. If European results dictate that the Premier League is no longer the continent's best, the Sky marketing men can use a different selling point: that it's the most exciting. And yet all those managers still look up at Manchester United in first.

So is there any evidence for Ferguson's assumption? Is this actually the most exciting season for some time? We decided to test the truism.

For a start, it's not just about the name that occupies top spot. It's the nature of how they got there. And, in truth, United's unbeaten run itself is somewhat misleading. They've also won fewer games than any other recent Premier League leaders at this stage. Or, to put it another way, they've dropped points in more games: seven out of 16. That was unthinkable in the Big Four era (2004-09) and provides a room for error not seen in the Premier League since Christmas 2001. In 2005-06, for example, Chelsea had a return of 15 wins, one draw and a solitary defeat by Christmas.

United's current record, however, should also correspond to weekly results. And, as anyone who fills in their local club pools every Saturday will tell you, that has emphatically been the case. On average, more than two matches a week have gone against position, form or simple expectation. That may not sound much but it's over a fifth of the fixtures every week. A gambler's nightmare certainly.

A particularly chaotic weekend was that of 25 September. West Ham beat Spurs, a buoyant Blackpool lost at home to Blackburn, Arsenal lost 3-2 to West Brom at the Emirates, Sunderland claimed a draw at Liverpool, United salvaged a draw at Bolton and Newcastle lost at home to Stoke.

The St Stephen's Day fixtures provide some scope for a repeat. West Brom, for example, could give Bolton a tricky game at the Reebok; there's not much between Fulham and West Ham even if it is at Craven Cottage; Birmingham could well frustrate an inconsistent Everton despite the latter's Monday win at Eastlands; Manchester City themselves, meanwhile, have an awkward trip to St James' Park. Most promisingly perhaps, you'd fancy Blackpool to take advantage of Liverpool's awful away record and complete the double over Roy Hodgson's side.

Except, this season, you can't even put too much emphasis on those patterns. In October, Liverpool went and won 1-0 at Bolton.

If these results are evidence of a change rather than a mere impression, then the table itself should be starting to tilt. The points totals should be coming down in the top half, and up in the bottom. Again, that has been the case (see panel). And even though United have only played 16 games (having had two postponed) rather than the 17 most others have, an extra three points would still have provided the lowest total for leaders since 2003. It would also be below the overall Premier League average.

As it stood after the 17th round of games (and excluding West Ham's draw with Blackburn for purposes of balance), 22 points separate top from bottom. Only once has the Premier League been that contracted: 2002-03, when West Ham eventually went down with 43 points. Even if that gap were 25 points, only the 1994-95, 1997-98, 1998-99 and 2001-02 seasons were more unpredictable. But all of those campaigns except United's '99 treble-winners, surprisingly, saw the leaders in a stronger position.

We're a long way from the levels of 1959-75, of course, when no English team won the league twice in a row and there were 11 different champions. But, at the very least, the Big Four era is certainly over and we're witnessing a general excitability not seen for a decade. For all the cynicism about United again being top, that's not to be sniffed at.

Alongside a general decline in quality across United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, City and Spurs have so far failed to add true consistency to their tilts at the top.

Just beneath them, a host of teams such as Bolton, Sunderland and West Brom have added a sense of adventure to competitive squads. That may have resulted in the odd thrashing once a better side goes ahead – such as West Brom's annihilation at the feet of Chelsea – but has generally unnerved the top teams a bit more. That sense of awe has evaporated.

And at the bottom, as poor as West Ham have been, they've still had one of the highest points totals for any 20th-placed side in Premier League history. Despite their predicament, their demise isn't as assured as in previous seasons. In general this season, mistakes are going unpunished much, much more.

mdelaney@tribune.ie