Reading the daily log books of the calls into solicitors at Flac – an organisation that runs a network of free legal advice centres – makes you wonder whether the experts and officials have got it totally wrong about the soundness of the €150bn in home loans on the books of the Dublin banks.
Not so long ago, urgent queries to Flac's 70 advice centres were from hard-pressed borrowers seeking advice on family law, immigration law, tenants' rights and personal debt. But in recent months, distressed calls from middle-class Ireland needing urgent legal advice about their banks and missed mortgage payments have increasingly featured on the daily log books.
The €150bn worth of home loans on the books of the Irish banks is about double the €88bn of commercial property loans that almost brought the state to bankruptcy. But, say the banking and official experts, the write-offs of the home loan books will be much lower because international experience shows that most people, even in the deepest recessions, do their utmost to meet their monthly payments.
But the growth in numbers seeking legal advice suggests a different story. People on the front line, including many mortgage brokers who have become proxy debt counsellors, believe the rising number of defaulters masks an even greater number of people who are struggling to pay their mortgages and, sooner or later, the banks will have to take an enormous financial hit.
"The first thing I tell clients is that you are in good company," said Michael Dowling of the Independent Mortgage Advisers Federation (IMAF). "It is affecting all levels of society. You would be surprised by the people who are struggling to pay their mortgages," he said.
At Flac, many of the callers, who can no longer afford to pay for a solicitor or barrister, are at the end of their tether. As the summer progressed and the jobless rate increased, the number of legal queries about mortgage interest payments ballooned. In August, about 70 of the almost 800 calls Flac received specifically concerned debt, and mostly mortgage debt. The emotional distress of callers has also increased, the September logbook shows:
"Caller is in arrears on his mortgage – lending institution will not accept his repayment offers. He also wants to renegotiate the mortgage payment amounts going forward into the future in any case. Lender's legal department says it will not deal with him until he pays off the arrears."
The rising desperation of an increasing number of callers can be heard:
"Caller wanted to know what will happen if he defaults on his mortgage. Wanted to know how long it would take for his house to be repossessed if he defaulted. And whether banks ever write off debts of persons with mental illnesses as bad debts, or if they always proceed to repossession."
At IMAF, Dowling warns that both the landlord investor and home owner are facing similar problems: lenders will agree to reschedule mortgage repayments but the underlying problem of increasing arrears will not ease.
"The big problem is what is going to happen when the softly-softly approach of the banks ends," he said.
One of his largest investor clients has 14 properties. "He is in arrears by €70,000, and growing. The guy's problem is that we initially got a moratorium between two lenders. His problem is that the rents fell dramatically and the number of voids is increasing as it then takes longer to get tenants. Then the value of the security has fallen by 35%."
For most residential homeowners who are already in trouble, the so-called policy of forbearance will delay the inevitable, said Dowling. "The arrears are accumulating," he said.
Meanwhile, Flac's advice line continues to keep count of the rising tide of financial misery. A call last month recorded: "Caller paid money into a PRSA and wanted to know is there any way that the financial institution could be forced to allow him to take the money out to pay off his mortgage. There is a warrant out for caller's arrest (next week) for failure to pay a court fine."
Debt queries to Flac helpline in recent months
» Caller has multiple mortgages. Sold one property but the bank is claiming one of the mortgages is an 'all sums owed' mortgage.
» Caller had a large debt with one of the main banks, has been summoned to court, is on social welfare and cannot repay it. Wanted to know what to do.
» Caller living in Ireland and had a credit card debt in the UK which he had been repaying by monthly instalments, but he is unable to pay any more at the moment until he sells some of his property etc, and generates income and now they are threatening him with court proceedings if he doesn't pay balance.
» Difficulty with mortgage payments. Father as a guarantor; wanted to know if the bank would go after the father for arrears.
» Caller is currently in arrears with his mortgage and is on unemployment benefit and was wondering what his options were.
» Caller's son has been in a car accident. The hospital bill is for over €5,000 and wanted to know if it's possible to pay hospital in instalments as cannot afford to pay in one go.
» Debt collection company threatening caller with court proceedings. Wants to know if there is a possibility of prison.
» Caller has two judgments against him jointly with his wife. He has an appointment to see a legal aid board solicitor. He has been waiting since September 2008 for a solicitor to be assigned to him. Wife was running their business as a director but she closed it down and ran up a lot of debts and has not paid the mortgage in a long time and also has not done anything about the debts which she is being jointly pursued for.
» Caller is currently in arrears on her mortgage repayments. She was wondering what options were available to her.
» Caller is a sole trader and has various business debts. He owes money to the Revenue which he cannot afford to pay. His accountant wrote to the Revenue offering to pay by instalments but the Revenue would not accept the offer. He has a solicitor but cannot afford to pay him to do any more work.
» Caller being approached by intimidating debt collectors over a debt owed. Debt is legitimate. What can caller do?
» Caller is being pursued by a well-known bank for a debt of approximately €20,000. The summons for attendance of debtor for the instalment order hearing is in late September. This was sent to her family home address and as she has not lived here for years and does not want her name in the local papers. She wants to know would it be possible to have the court district changed.
» Caller got a letter requesting they vacate their home for repossession. Has not been consistently meeting payments recently. What can they do?
» Caller's son had outstanding debts and wanted her to sign over her deeds of her house to him and act as guarantor for mortgage. Needs advice on the position.
» Caller's husband suffering from an illness and she recently realised he has accrued numerous debts in her name and wanted advice and number for legal aid board.
» Caller had a loan with a big bank and had loan protection in case of redundancy. Caller was made redundant a few years ago and the bank took proceedings against him. The caller received a letter today from the bank's solicitor stating they had a judgment against him and requiring him to take action within seven days.
» Caller wanted to know if person cannot pay debt and there is a judgment made on their house what does this mean.
» Caller's husband had a limited company and creditors coming after him personally and wanted advice.
» Caller underwent a legal separation and has now been issued with a civil bill from solicitor seeking outstanding payment. She has no financial means to pay costs.
» Caller wanted to know if her husband could sell their family home without her permission. He is a compulsive gambler.
Sounds like all these people need to join all the rich bankers, developers and bond holders in a scheme the government are running called NAMA.