Despite some commentary and dreaming from various quarters of Irish opinion, Nama is established, up and running, and moving forward. This is a fact and it should be treated as one from here on. Our combined energy now needs to be channeled into this solution and away from dreaming about different paths and roads not taken. We are beginning to suffer from analysis paralysis and positive action is urgently called for. Following on from my meeting with Nama two weeks ago, I have been giving deep thought to how to redeem my loans and be part of the solution. Simply putting up a 'for sale' sign will not be enough, and a lot of creativity will be required to get this process moving forward.
This thought process sent me out to look for precedent. History should always be our guide to the future and this time is no different. Our property crash and banking crisis is one of many that have taken place in the world and this should give us confidence for the future. We are not breaking new ground and this has happened before. We are simply learning mistakes that have already been learnt in other parts of the world at other times.
The most recent crisis of a similar nature happened in the US in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and this is a very useful guide. Their crisis was the wholesale collapse of the building society industry in the US preceded by a property crash. It is now called the savings and loans crisis and it led to the failure of 747 building societies with debts of $394bn.
The Resolution Trust Corporation was established to manage and resolve these debts. This RTC is very similar to our Nama and we should learn from this distant cousin. In their own very efficient way, the Americans got stuck into their problem and resolved it in about five years. We cannot move as quickly due to the scale of our problems when set against the size of our little country, but we can learn from their solutions. They even had their own version of Long Term Economic Value, which has caused so much controversy here. They called their equivalent metric the Derived Investment Value.
So, how did they get their money back?
They pioneered the use of equity partnerships to achieve the maximum value for the RTC, which was in effect the state. While a number of different structures were used, all of the equity partnerships involved a private sector partner acquiring a partial interest in a pool of assets, controlling the management and sale of the assets in the pool, and making distributions to the RTC.
This kind of structure would allow the upside to be shared between Nama and the private sector and Nama will need this if it is to break even or make money. This private sector motive will drive profits and improve the overall performance of Nama.
The Americans only went with this JV solution after a number of very disappointing bulk assets sales, which did not deliver enough value. The early bulk buyers discounted the asset prices to a lower level than the RTC had paid for them, due to the uncertainty of the market and other unknowns.
We have a similar set of circumstances. The Irish market is full of unknowns, and any price bid today on Nama property will reflect this to the detriment of the taxpayer. The dumping of too much property will drive Nama into a loss. We need to be more creative with this sales process.
Despite this dumping problem, we have to get some traction into the process and some sales moving. I can think of a few sectors where easy wins will be possible. There will be opportunities for Nama to sell retail shops and similar assets to the tenants of these units. The investor market for small retail does not exist anymore due to the problems with rent collection and the new lease structures. A lot of business could be done selling shops to the tenants with finance provided by the high street banks as part of their SME lending targets. The best person to own a shop is the business occupier and they will be more willing to pay a mortgage where they are building an asset, rather than rent which can be seen as dead money.
In a similar vein, I think that the hotel industry can step up and buy some of its assets off the developers and tax investors. City centre hotels are trading relatively well and I think buyers will be there for these assets taking a view on future growth.
Trophy investment properties with international covenants can also be sold into pension funds and overseas investors who will be buying the income stream rather than the property. An example of this was the recent purchase of the AIB branch on Grafton Street.
There should be plenty here for the early years of Nama to get through and I think that these kinds of deals are possible. I also think that certain select land assets can be converted into cash through the building of quality homes in certain key areas of demand. The residential market is clearly unlocking once the price is right, and land value can be released in this way.
Overall, we need to get under way and on with the process. I for one am relishing the challenge and opportunity to make the deals happen and get this country moving again. We need to catch up the past 18 months which have been a waste of time while the bank prepared for Nama. Let's get on with it.
Simon your dad gave a great speech at the Merriman school. His comparison between the horse and the jockey was illuminating. The banks being the horse and the developer the jockey. Unfortunately the horses are knackered and the jockeys have become academics. There is no doubt the family has brains to burn. Keep up the good work.