Just a month after agreeing to €67.5bn in international loans, Ireland has shot to the fourth-most likely state in the world to be forced into renegotiating lower or longer repayment terms with its existing sovereign lenders.

The sovereign debt markets suggest Irish government debt has moved above Argentina and behind Bolivia, Greece and Pakistan as the costliest to insure in the world. CMA Datavision suggests the risk is even higher: its survey of 1,200 credit default swap users attaches a 42% probability that Ireland faces some sort of debt restructuring. Greece at 58% and Venezuela on 52% are the riskiest in the world.

Trading of 10- and three-year Irish government debt paper since the costly bailout also suggests there is now no way for taxpayers to dodge the ostensibly private debts of the insolvent banks.

Purchases by the European Central Bank appear to have had only a limited effect in supporting Irish sovereign debt values.

The value of Irish debt paper, which initially rose after the bailout, slumped again later in the month. Government interest rates (which move in the opposite direction to the value of the bonds) on 10-year debt paper had risen back to 9% by the end of the year. The interest rate on the three-year paper, which had fallen to a monthly low of 5.9% after the bailout, was back up at 6.4% last week.

Market prices are also troubling for the rest of the eurozone. Ten-year debt paper from Spain and Portugal was trading last week at 5.45% and 6.6%, compared with the 3% rate Germany has to pay.

And in debt-laden Italy, which last week enjoyed strong demand for its sale of new six-month treasury bills, there is a warning for the new year. Its 10-year paper was trading at 4.8%, up from the mid-summer rate of 4%.