

It is generally accepted that Ireland's economic recovery will be export-led. Our economic success in the past was largely built on healthy overseas trade and it will be again in the future. Ireland's small domestic market means that trading internationally is the only option for growth-oriented Irish firms. Unfortunately, however, our share of global trade has dropped in step with our loss of competitiveness over the past decade.
While many Irish companies are aware of the fundamental need to internationalise, understanding what the world's "trading map" looks like and where the opportunities lie has remained a challenge. For this reason HSBC commissioned Delta Economics to develop 'Mapping the World's Trade Connections', the first report that compiles how the world is trading today to help businesses understand where the opportunities may lie tomorrow. Bringing data on trends together with views from leading authorities on trade from across the globe, the report provides a unique resource for Irish businesses.
Inevitably, the report charts Ireland's relative drop in competitiveness over the past decade, with our share of worldwide merchandise exports falling by a very significant 16.24% between 2000 and 2009 to 0.86%. A further fall of 1.39% in the first quarter of 2010 has been offset somewhat by a pick-up in trade during the second quarter.
There is good news, however, in the way in which our trading volumes with different partners have changed over the same period.
Ireland is becoming less reliant on its more traditional mature and consequently slow-growth markets in North America and Europe and is increasing its share of trade with the emerging economies of Asia and the Pacific. Ireland's fastest-growing export partners between 2000 and 2009 were China, Australia and Hong Kong. Indeed, Ireland's trade with China grew by 1,378.4% between 2000 and 2009 – albeit from a low base.
Another very encouraging trend revealed by the report is that Ireland's key trade partners in January-April 2010 were Russia, Canada, Vietnam and Turkey. This is further evidence of Ireland moving to diversify its export market away from its traditional European base.
This is particularly important as the report identifies new opportunities arising around the world, with countries beyond India, China and Brazil emerging as rising stars – including a group of emerging African nations, Vietnam and Kazakhstan – that may particularly benefit from the strengths that many Irish-based companies offer.
Emerging Africa is also very exciting. The report found that "countries with young, entrepreneurial and well connected populations like Ghana and Ethiopia have particularly strong commitments to change and therefore big opportunities to pursue speedy growth. Chinese agricultural investments in Ethiopia are fuelling the modernisation of the sector while infrastructure development is a high priority, creating opportunities for indigenous businesses to work with international businesses and for inward investment into the country."
Vietnam is identified as a country to watch. While its trade data suggests a short-term decline in fortunes, expert opinion contradicts this, pointing to emerging skills in the production of, for example, clothing and footwear where it is becoming a major competitor to countries like Turkey and China. While the growth of Kazakhstan is heavily influenced by oil and gas, the report highlights that experts see the rapid growth in commodities exports as heralding the entrance of this country on to the world stage most notably for businesses looking for a partner to access former Soviet republics.
These are some of the key emerging patterns in global trade and it is encouraging to note that Ireland has been at least keeping pace with the changes. This good performance can be attributed in no small part to greater emphasis by trade bodies like Export Ireland and Enterprise Ireland on promoting exports to non-European countries and investment in supporting life-sciences and biopharmaceuticals – high-value and fast-growing sectors dominated by global companies with global supply chains.
The valuable contribution of Ireland's traditional trade exports, notably the agri-food sector, also remains key. This sector contributes around €6bn to Irish merchandise exports annually and although trade has fallen, these indigenous Irish companies have a solid reputation in international markets and they can be expected to play a significant role in the recovery of our trade figures.
Global trade is no longer about cheap labour but focused on establishing a global supply chain. In this context it is smart businesses which will be able to capitalise on both developed and emerging markets' strengths to facilitate success. This is where a major opportunity will lie for Ireland in the future.
While the Irish cost base and therefore its international competitiveness has improved somewhat over the past two years it has to be accepted that it will never return to the levels of the 1980s and early 1990s when it could realistically compete with low-cost locations in other parts of the globe for production facilities.
The opportunity is for Ireland to be regarded as an attractive option for emerging nations as a strategic partner and link in the global supply chain. Our openness to trade is well established and we continually rank among the world's leading nations in this regard, our commercial and academic innovation base is strong and is strengthening, and the skill levels of the Irish workforce are highly regarded by multinational firms across the globe.
By bringing these advantages to bear, Irish companies can build upon the progress made in recent years and establish themselves as significant players on the world's new trading map.
Ananth Krishnan is Head of Trade Finance at HSBC Corporate Banking Ireland
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Just change "It is generally accepted" to "It is generally hoped" and the article will be much more accurate!