A departure from Ireland by Intel, the country's largest private-sector employer, is unlikely to happen in the short term because of the complexity and cost of such a move, the economic think-tank the ESRI has said.

Professor John Fitzgerald, a senior member of the research body, said he might have to revisit his employment projections for Ireland if either Intel or Dell moved out of the state.

However, he said a departure by Intel in the short term was unlikely because the chip maker would need an existing plant which could replicate the Irish plant's capabilities.

He said it was possible Intel might wind down its operations over 10 years, but an "instantaneous" move was virtually impossible. "You don't see a sudden pull-out, you see a gradual one," he said.

Speaking on NewsTalk 106 last week, Professor Fitzgerald said moving an operation the size of Intel's Leixlip plant overnight would be very difficult, but this was still little consolation.

"Intel is the really big one. Dell is also big, if they moved out tomorrow that would be a major shock," he acknowledged.

He said it takes many years to build up the level of skills found at a plant like Leixlip.

Last week the ESRI said average unemployment next year will be 8%, with the worst performance coming in the latter part of the year.