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FIANNA Fáil backbenchers are split right down the middle on whether Taoiseach Brian Cowen should continue in the role and lead the party into the next general election.
An extensive Sunday Tribune survey of the Fianna Fáil backbenchers on Friday and yesterday showed that half of them do not believe Cowen should remain as party leader before the country goes to the polls.
Of the 47 backbench TDs contacted, 30 (almost two-thirds) responded. Fifteen backed Cowen, but the same number said he was not the best person to lead Fianna Fáil into the next election.
Brian Lenihan, Micheál Martin, Dermot Ahern and to a lesser extent Mary Hanafin and Noel Dempsey were mentioned as alternatives. Many TDs said Lenihan would be the clear first choice were it not for his current health concerns.
The survey's finding confirms reports of considerable discontent and unrest in the parliamentary party in the wake of last week's widely criticised cabinet reshuffle.
TDs insist the rumblings are not confined to the "usual suspects" – the small rump of the parliamentary party who have been vocal in their criticism of Cowen's leadership for some time – and that "a new rump" of TDs traditionally loyal to the Taoiseach emerged last week.
Most TDs say privately that, on balance, the absence of a senior minister presenting himself as an alternative to Cowen should mean that there will not be a move against the Taoiseach.
Cowen still has his supporters. Meath TD Johnny Brady said: "We can't be changing the leadership like a yo-yo." Dublin North TD Daragh O'Brien praised the Taoiseach for taking the tough decisions.
But others said "things are happening" behind the scenes with TDs being privately sounded out. "It will be much clearer by the middle of the next week," was the assessment of one deputy. Another TD said "an awful lot of people are unhappy".
"People are just waiting to see what happens in the coming days. If one or two people with more credibility go public next week then there could be an avalanche," said one deputy. All of these TDs would previously have been seen as close to the leadership.
While the reshuffle brought matters to a head, it is the party's dire standings in the opinion polls that is really at the root of TDs' discontent.
There is further bad news for Fianna Fáil today in this regard with a new poll showing party support down three points to 24, leaving it 11 points behind Fine Gael.
There is a general belief among Fianna Fáil TDs that despite the sustained criticism over cuts in pay, reductions in social welfare payments and the hugely expensive recapitalisation of the banks, the government is "doing the right thing" by the country. TDs are willing to go out and defend these decisions. But there is enormous frustration at what they believe are avoidable mistakes being made by the government – the recent controversies over pay rises in Anglo Irish Bank and the decision to exempt senior civil servants from the pay cuts are cited as two examples.
And there is also anger that no action has been taken against TDs such as John McGuinness and Mattie McGrath who have been very public in their criticisms of the government.
While McGrath's very personalised criticism of Cowen as "lazy, lethargic and inept" was seen as over the top and hurtful by TDs, a number conceded that "the effort is not being put in". They said that while Cowen was on top of the big issues, there was a need for greater micromanagement given the difficult climate in which the government was operating.
The Taoiseach's communication skills were also highlighted by a number of deputies. "Brian Cowen is capable, but totally lacking in communication skills. His message is never put across in a simple crystal-clear manner. In his current mumbled, grumbled down-on-himself way, he is a problem... He has to show he is willing and able to do this job and give leadership," explained one backbencher.
In a separate criticism, the Taoiseach's decision not to drop any of his long-serving ministers was yesterday questioned by senior Fianna Fáil TD MJ Nolan, who said some of the cabinet had been there "too long".
One-third of the cabinet have been serving as senior ministers since 1997, and Nolan said ministers who had been in government for 10 or more years tended to become "flat" and "run out of enthusiasm" because these were "highly pressurised posts".
Citing the example of chief executives of major US companies, Nolan said they served an average tenure of less than six years for this reason. He said the most effective ministers in the current government – naming Eamon Ryan, Mary Hanafin, Brian Lenihan and Batt O'Keeffe – had been there two, three or four years.
The Taoiseach is facing into one of the most critical weeks of his political career. Along with the question marks hanging over his leadership, there will be major announcements on the future of the banking sector on Tuesday.
The main parties have totally missed the new growing rage and alienation felt by young people over the past two years. In particular, they seem unaware of the growing appreciation by many young internet bloggers and members of other youth fora about the myth of church and state seperation and the fact that we live in a theocracy, not a true democracy. The willingness of Cowen and other politicians to allow the church free rein to break the law in the abuse scandals, with impunity and to use tax money to pay off the church's child abuse costs while thousands cannot get work or adequate social welfare is building up a head of steam that fring groups are going to harness to terrible effect.
Cowen must go, but his replacement must dump a lot of the present mob of tainted church toadies and place state and church seperation and the primacy of state law as a number one priority, before it is too late for social order.
Well said, Michael Mc Grath. We gave an open invitation to Europe to come and party with us, the party's over but our guests are not leaving, social welfare Ireland is much better than 50.00 a week Eastern Europe. As a low paid Irish worker(working with some Western Europeans) we cannot understand the reasoning of having a system that allows people to come to a country and within a few months of arrival have a better standard of living than minimum wage workers, and to compound it are able to work "cash in hand" for Irish employers and still claim every social welfare payment that is available to the so-called vulnerable. Political correctness is not going to get us out of this mess, strong governance and monies being earned in this country being spent in this country is.
I hope these impotent td's that say cowen should go continue to support the govt while at the same time talk out of the side of their mouths because the longer this continues the better the chance of this disease that is ff will be terminally damaged and hopefully wiped out!As for the greens who now have made ff their toy, they have out smarted ff when it comes to jobs for the boys.
@ Michael McGrath
I think you have made some valid, interesting points but I believe that we must tackle our Irish crowd first!
Now that our Ponzi scheme in property has collapsed we must target the Eastern Europeans? Who's idea was it in the first place to bring them in to the country to work on the Ponzi building sites? I am much more worried about the new Ponzi scheme designed exclusively by the Irish Government as a response to the previous Ponzi scheme. Namely, NAMA which is infinitely more damaging than Eastern Europeans. NAMA is nothing more than a blatant transfer of wealth to the barristers, solicitors, estate agents, accountants, developers and bankers. None of the above mentioned will get the Irish economy out from bankruptcy. Can any of the above be exported? By the time the spin is deciphered and NAMA unravels they will have tens of millions in nest eggs accumulated and it is the plebs that will be left holding the gargantuan levels of debts.
A lot of these Eastern Europeans are great people and many of them have worked tirelessly here in Ireland. Unfortunately, as an Irish person I have to admit, that often they are much more honest than ourselves including our politicians. Yes, there are some criminals amongst them same as there are amongst us the Irish and we need to deal with that problem.
I think, we should focus, on the Ponzi scheme NAMA and the lies we have been told by the Greens and FF about the cost of winding up Anglo as they say in hurling, don't take your eye off the ball.
If FF backbenchers think that sacking Cowen will save them they are badly mistaken. They have hounded ordinary people all in an attempt to save their friends the Bankers, Developers and other business interests. It will be our turn when the next election comes. Those brave backbenchers are in for a big fall and I will take the count day off to enjoy it.
Well said Michael,to add,the childrens allowance should be cut off at four kids,you want 14 kids?fine but you shouldnt be having them at the Taxpayers expense,it would certainly cut down on people having kids just so they can claim the allowances...as for Cowen,he is so far beneath the contempt of most citizens,he no longer is worth even talking about,leave it to history to judge him as our worst Taoiseach and guilty of economic crimes against the State...for my part,my hands are far from clean,I voted FF every election since I was 18,I will have to live with that.
So Noel Dempsey complains because backbenchers are critical of Brian Cowen. Is this the same Noel Dempsey who, with three other backbenchers, had their knives stuck in Charlie Haughey shortly after they were elected to Dail Eireann? Short memory Minister?
Brian Cowen should study Ciceros commentary on political life regarding those who expect gratitude for their work.Cicero remained aloof from Pompey and Julius Caesar but observed that those who expected gratitude would be better off getting a dog.
I agree with Mr. McGrath. We need to end the welfare tourism and the other handouts that non nationals seem to be able to get here. We should look after our own poor first. I'm a small farmer.
As well as all the people in Ireland....in fact we'd be grateful if they would all resign forthright & leave the country & the people will rule & sort out the banks etc with a lot more panache.
So....Michael O' Leary...get one of your worst in condition planes ready to fly "One -way"!
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Yes, it is in the micromanagement that the fault lies, and this can add up to several billions waste annually . For instance we are not under any EU obligation to pay the full Rent Allowance to EU immigrants under EU regulations. And there is no control, indeed no audit on a Black Hole of a couple of billions leaving the country annually via Western Union to Poland and Points East . ( A levy on Western Union ? ) We shall simply have to, through micromanagement, cut down at least two billions, which can be done, annually on Eastern European immigrants, better known as Welfare Tourists, we shall have to negotiate with the EU a much lesser " Immigrants Dole " in line with our UK neighbours, or we stand in danger of being flooded out by yet another huge torrent , this time coming from our mutual Ireland-UK free travel zone, this gap in our dyke wall simply must be plugged if we are not to go down like Iceland and Greece.And don't shoot me, I'm only a photographer !