FOR a healthy political party, losing a town councillor would barely cause a raised eyebrow through the organisation. However, the PDs are currently anything but a healthy political party and the news last week that former Clonmel mayor Richie Molloy was defecting to Fianna Fáil was just the latest blow for the Progressive Democrats party which appears to be heading irrevocably towards political extinction.

There are voices in the party who bitterly dispute this assertion, but privately many other PD figures concede sadly that the game is up for the once proud party and it's just a matter of when the plug is pulled.

Incredibly, given it has just two TDs, two senators and just 17 county councillors, there are as many as three factions in the party. Perhaps not so surprisingly, given the disarray the party is in, sources say that exchanges have become quite tense and "people are falling out with each other."

The first group is strongly of the view that the party should dissolve and do so quickly and honourably and allow each of the remaining elected representatives to do a deal with other political parties.

The second, who would mainly be supporters of Fiona O'Malley, believe passionately that the party has a future. And the third grouping, which is believed to include most of the PD organisation in Galway, are adopting a more pragmatic 'wait and see' approach, but are leaning towards a link-up with Fianna Fáil.

At the head of it all is a surely bewildered Ciaran Cannon. The leader has upped his game in recent weeks after being labelled the "invisible man" – issuing a series of press statements – but he is facing an impossible job to rescue the PDs.

When he took over as leader, Cannon said that unless the party wins 35 to 40 seats at next year's local elections, then the party will have to "take stock" and review whether it had a future. But if the local elections were held this week, the party would struggle to hold eight of its current 17 county council seats and there is no sign of where any gains are going to come from.

However, the party is looking increasingly unlikely to be around for those local elections.

While a series of new committees were established at its recent national executive meeting, the PDs currently have no head office; no fundraising and no policy groups.

And, more importantly in terms of its short term survival, party councillors are getting increasingly antsy about having to face the electorate in 10 ­ months' time. Nerves have not been helped in recent weeks by the re-emergence of strong rumours within the PD organisation that Galway west TD Noel Grealish, along with most of the party's Galway organisation, is on the verge of leaving for Fianna Fáil.

It should be stressed that there is no evidence that there is any basis to these rumours – the official line from the PDs is that Grealish is committed to the party at least until the local elections. But nobody is in any doubt that if Grealish and the Galway councillors go, so too does the party.

Whatever the Galway faction's intentions, it does seem that next month will prove critical for the PDs. Nothing is likely to happen over the next couple of weeks as the political establishment is on holidays, but minds are likely to be focused come the beginning of September.

Some figures in the party insist there is no crisis and the party is gearing up for next year's local elections.

Responding to analysis in this newspaper last week about the PDs' dire state, one letter writer to the editor of the Sunday Tribune said that: "As supporters of the Progressive Democrats, we can vouch for the fact that the will to thrive and survive is as strong as the will of every Dublin GAA fan to see the team capture the Sam McGuire [sic] in September."

Another aggrieved letter writer said, "Ciaran Cannon has been meeting with the members up and down the country in areas that haven't seen our leaders in years, which caused our current problem in the first place. Meetings have occurred arranging for selection conventions for the European and local elections. As recently as Thursday, Dublin officer members met to organise for the local elections. This meeting was an absolute success and an energising meeting."

However, councillors will not be interested in verbal assurances. They will want definite evidence that the party is still viable until May.

Nobody wants to be seen as the person that finally pulls the plug on a party that has done the state much service over the past two decades. But all the councillors will be looking at their seats and weighing up whether their political future is best served by staying with the PDs.

Richie Molloy is just the latest to have done so. He told the Clonmel based The Nationalist newspaper last week: "My gut instinct is that it's going to be difficult for the party to keep going. Most of the PDs' policies have now been adopted by the larger parties."

Last March, Molloy had been persuaded to stay in the PDs by Cannon and nominated Cannon for the party leadership. Less than four months later he has gone. His is unlikely to be the last defection.