Tom O' Connor, Department of Social and General studies, Cork Institute of Technology

Department of social and general studies, Cork Institute of Technology


"The govern­ment is going to prolong the recession by continuing to cut back on spending, which will deflate the economy and reduce the tax revenue the next time around. This reduces the amount of money we have to spend and it will push the economy into a vicious circle spiralling downwards so we need to have a fiscal stimulus.


"I would think the very clear necessity is to put at least €1 billion into retraining for people who are unemployed and the other €7 billion I would put into capital projects such as affordable housing, schools, and renewable energy projects.


"There are still skills and labour shortages in the economy so there are areas where we could retrain people in areas such as childcare.


"My fear is that the recession could become a depression. If the government keeps cutting back, it will reduce employment in the state sector, creating higher social welfare demands, and this will reduce the tax take further.


"I think An Bord Snip Nua is a bad idea. We need efficiency in the public service and certain areas need to be amalgamated but the level of cutbacks that they are bringing in will actually do more damage. You could see unemployment hit 400,000 and go over 10% in the next three years.


"I don't think Brian Lenihan has a grasp of economics or the national economy. The budget and the way the government rowed back on it showed it has an ad hoc, non-strategic way of viewing the economy.


" Interest rates are going to come down and that will make investment happen as the cost of borrowing money is cheaper. That should increase investment, assuming that the banking crisis resolves itself.


"We have probably seen the worst of the banking crisis, given the banks have started a mortgage war in the last week.


"In the second half of 2009 you will see the housing market bottomed out and a tiny increase. Construction may start to come back in the second half of the year.


"Gordon Brown is borrowing money and going back to Keynesian economics so we should do the same but it should not be reckless borrowing for current spending."