The Dáil is back on Wednesday but, judging by the demise of the PDs and the government's decision to bring forward the budget, politics returned from the
summer break with a bang some weeks ago – even the tribunals are back up and running.

With the public finances in disarray, consumer confidence and the stock markets plummeting, unemployment rising and the not-so-small matter of the Lisbon treaty to be addressed, these are challenging times for the body politic. A general election may potentially be as far away as 2012, but the next 12 months are set to be as crucial as during any general-election year. Here, we profile the six politicians for whom the stakes couldn't be higher – the six for whom it's make-or-break time

Brian Cowen

Honeymoon, what honeymoon? Cowen has endured a torrid start to the top job. To say he has had no luck is an understatement. Some of the criticism of him (playing golf – imagine?; going on a holiday – what
decadence; not rescuing the pay talks last July) has been utterly ridiculous. But Cowen didn't help his cause with his initial, uncharacteristically nervy and hesitant approach to the top job. That seems to be changing, and it needs to, because it's no exaggeration to say that the next year will not only define his tenure as Taoiseach but, potentially, dictate whether he is still in the job by the end of 2009.

A Lisbon referendum, mark II – in some shape or form – is certainly a maximum of 12-13 months away. If that is lost, Cowen's future is very much in doubt. The post-Lisbon research findings published 10 days ago show how difficult it will be to win that referendum. But, before even considering the core European issues, it certainly cannot be won if the government isn't seen to tackle the fiscal and economic crisis facing the country. The decision to bring forward the budget and his comments in Galway last week suggest that Cowen is in the mood to face the challenges head-on. However, the challenges of leading a government in the teeth of a recession and with no money to spend cannot be overstated.

Needs to: Be himself, show leadership and be bold (see Charlie Haughey 1987-1989).

Must avoid: Fudges, compromises and
panicking when the inevitable you-know-what hits the fan once cutbacks are introduced (see Charlie Haughey 1979-1982).

Brian Lenihan

The 'Brain' Lenihan didn't enjoy a good start at finance, giving ammunition to those doubters who felt he didn't have enough cabinet experience for such a senior job. But his assured handling of the announcement to move forward the budget suggests he is now more at ease with himself and his new job.

Behind the scenes, those who come across him have been impressed and believe he has the mettle for the job that lies ahead. He will need them because no finance minister since the days of Ray MacSharry, Alan Dukes and John Bruton has faced into a tougher climate.

He can expect to bear the brunt of the considerable flak coming the government's way over the next year. However, he has little choice but to face that challenge head on – half-hearted measures simply won't work.

Needs to: Forget about getting advice from Bertie Ahern. Instead, he should adopt a 'what would Ray MacSharry have done?' mantra and implement a modern-day equivalent of Mac the Knife's '87-'89 blueprint for economic and fiscal recovery.

Must avoid: any more bloopers like when he bemoaned his bad luck at becoming finance minister in the current climate.

Enda Kenny

The government's difficulty must surely be Fine Gael's opportunity. But that creates its own pressures for Enda Kenny. There is grumbling behind the scenes in the party that the Fine Gael momentum has stalled since the general election of last year. And, while it mightn't be deemed good manners in polite Fine Gael company to point it out, the question mark as to whether Kenny will ever become Taoiseach still lingers.

A desire to avoid the bloodletting of the past, the absence of an obvious alternative, plus Kenny's not-to-be-underestimated role in saving Fine Gael after its 2002 meltdown, means he is safe... for now. A bad local elections or a poor showing in the Dublin South by-election could change that, particularly if there is no improvement in the party's opinion poll rating.

Put simply, there is no guarantee Kenny will still be leader of his party this time next year. His TDs – particularly the younger crop who are impatient at what they see as 20 years of being kicked around by Fianna Fáil – will be looking for signs that he has what takes to consistently put Cowen under pressure, particularly on the economy (not his strong point to date) and present Fine Gael as a viable alternative option.

Needs to: Provide clear direction of what Fine Gael stands for and what its policies will be if in government – not being Fianna Fáil won't suffice.

Must avoid: Getting regular beatings at the hands of Brian Cowen in the Dáil.

Ciarán Cannon

The PDs are dead: long live the PDs. The party all but wound itself up last Tuesday night and now each TD, senator and councillor will have to turn their attention to what they do next to ensure they stay in political life.

None more so than Ciarán Cannon. The other three members of the parliamentary party are pretty much taken for. Noel Grealish is as good as in Fianna Fáil already; Fiona O'Malley will follow him there, while Mary Harney will remain on as an independent minister for the time being and will pick her own time of departure from the cabinet. She may well end up as the next EU Commissioner.

The real question is where will Cannon go? He struggled badly as leader of the PDs, but who wouldn't have in those circumstances? And he did show glimpses of what he is capable of during the leadership campaign. The word is that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would be interested in having him. The latter option may prove more appealing as there is a belief that he would have a better chance of taking a seat in Galway East standing for Fine Gael. Either way, Cannon has a big decision to make in the coming weeks.

Needs to: Go back to basics and learn to be a good constituency politician in Galway East before considering returning to the national stage.

Must avoid: Dwelling on his period as PD leader and concentrate on his future.

Mary Lou McDonald

Which is the real Mary Lou? The confident candidate who swept to a seat in Dublin in the 2004 Euro elections or the square peg in the round hole that failed miserably to win a Dáil seat in Dublin Central last year? The politician who played a key role in the 'no' victory in the Lisbon referendum and or the one who has failed to convince doubters within her own party?

Next year's Euro elections will go a long way towards answering those questions. She has a massive challenge to hold her seat with Dublin being reduced to a three-seater. But she showed during the referendum battle that she can be a feisty campaigner, and there will certainly be a considerable anti-Lisbon vote in the Euro elections. If she wins a seat, or at least performs strongly, she will put herself in a strong position to emerge as a key figure in the post-Adams/McGuinness Sinn Féin. However, another result like the 2007 general election would be hugely damaging.

Needs to: Win or come close to winning a seat in the European Elections.

Must avoid: Being overshadowed by other anti-Lisbon candidates and becoming an also-ran.

Bertie Ahern

While it may seem strange to describe the next political year as crucial for a retired Taoiseach, what happens in the coming months will have a major impact on Ahern's future career and his legacy. Ahern was back in the witness box for the final time last week at the Mahon tribunal and wasn't entirely convincing. But his performance will soon fade from the public memory.

The same cannot said for Judge Mahon's final report, which will finally be published (one would imagine so anyway) in the coming months. That report will pretty much dictate Ahern's future. It is unlikely to find there is evidence of any payment from Owen O'Callaghan to Bertie Ahern, the central charge levelled by Tom Gilmartin. But as everybody knows, the tribunal investigation has moved beyond that charge. If the report merely wraps Ahern on the knuckles in relation to the other revelations about his finances – as some in Fianna Fáil believe will happen – he will be free to pursue his ambition to run for the presidency in 2011.

However, if it goes further and makes serious findings against the former Taoiseach in relation to his finances and his dealings with the tribunal, as other Dublin Castle watchers believe could happen, then a presidential nomination would seem impossible and the impact on Ahern's legacy would be serious.

Needs to: Not that there's much he can do about it at this stage but... come out reasonably okay from Judge Mahon's final report.

Must avoid: Coming out very badly from Judge Mahon's final report. It really is that simple (or complex).