THANK God for Peter Sutherland. His calm, upbeat analysis of the Irish economy, in a piece he wrote in the Financial Times, was the perfect antidote to what went on at the teachers' and the Irish Medical Organisation's conferences last week.
How ironic that two of the groups of workers most insulated from the impact of recession were making the most noise.
Many sensible and realistic teachers sitting at home watching the news must have cringed at the behaviour of their colleagues at the conferences. One wonders what some of the tens of thousands of people who have lost their jobs in the past year made of it all.
And then there's the IMO. Where do you start with the IMO, the organisation that always manages to give the impression that only it is up to running the country? Listening to the scathing criticism of the HSE, one could easily have forgotten that it was the IMO, a few years back, that stiffed the state and the taxpayer by negotiating a deal whereby doctors were paid €640 annually for treating patients who were given a medical card on turning 70.
The problems with the health services are down to many, many factors. But vested interests – of which the IMO is certainly one – are by no means the least of them.
From the ridiculous to the sublime, Sutherland's assessment of Ireland's current woes was just what the doctors should have ordered.
I have to confess that I was never previously a 'Suds' fan – in my mind, too many rugby anecdotes, too old school tie-ish. Despite the incredible CV – Attorney General at 34, youngest ever European Commissioner, director general of GATT etc etc – I couldn't understand what all the fuss was about. I do now.
Amidst all the hysteria, the warnings from commentators that the country could go bankrupt, the suffocating negativity and carping, Sutherland's logical reasoning reminded me of the line from 'If', the famous Rudyard Kipling poem my late mother used to regularly quote to me, "if you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs."
Sutherland didn't dismiss the difficulties that Ireland faces. But he said our problems were "acute in nature" rather than chronic. And he said that "once Ireland overcomes this short-term panic – and I believe that last week's budget, whatever its alleged deficiencies, was a vital step in this process – the basic strengths of the Irish economy remain formidable".
Sutherland believes that focusing exclusively on housing-related problems – which he acknowledged have created a major challenge – distorts the picture of the Irish economy. Even if the economy does fall 8% this year, the country's GDP per head of population, in terms of purchasing power, will remain significantly higher than that of the UK or Germany. Unemployment has risen but there is still 80% more jobs in Ireland today than 15 years ago, he wrote.
During the housing boom, Ireland's current account balance moved from a long-term surplus into deficit – effectively we went from being a net lender to the world to a net borrower. But focusing on an area that many commentators have ignored, Sutherland noted that even this deficit was comparable more or less with many other developed economies and that since 2007, the situation had improved markedly and should return to surplus by the year-end.
Even though public-sector borrowing has been rising, this is more than offset by the rise in private sector lending. Trade balance is a major component of the current account and Sutherland says that the cause of these favourable statistics is export-led growth, led by inward investment in IT and pharmaceutical industries and private-sector services.
The strength of exports has resulted "in a far stronger basic Irish economy" than the one that existed in the 1980s, Sutherland wrote.
As a result of the recession, Irish exports will drop by 5.9% this year, but this compares favourably with a fall of 16.5% for Germany, 11.4% for France, 9.8% for the UK and 26.4% for Japan.
Another important positive for Ireland's long-term prospects, according to Sutherland, is the clear evidence that Ireland is dealing with its competitiveness issue in a sustainable and "unprecedented" manner. Latest data show an 8% drop in private-sector wages and, courtesy of the pension levy, there has been a 7-8% fall in public sector pay. "It is hard to imagine wages in other economies displaying such flexibility. If these figures are maintained or even supplemented, the Irish economy should emerge from the recession in a highly competitive position," he said.
While the recent mini-budget could have deflationary effects, the alternative was a major funding crisis, Sutherland said, adding that in a very open economy such as Ireland's fiscal stimulus – even if possible – would be less beneficial and drive up the cost of borrowing.
Sutherland concluded by arguing that "if the Irish people continue to react constructively to the harsh measures necessary, Ireland will be in a very strong position to benefit from the eventual global recovery".
In the week that was in it, such positive sentiments were like a breath of fresh air. The final line of 'If' promises, if Kipling's advice is followed, "yours is the earth and everything that's in it, And – which is more – you'll be a Man, my son". Or to put a 21st century twist on it, Sutherland is the man. More Suds, less mud.
There is an elephant in the room. The devaluation of Sterling is one of the MAIN causes of our crisis. Costs and prices in the UK, for food, cars and services are 30-50% lower than in Dublin.
All Irish politicians are so wedded to the Euro that they are whistling in a storm.
Peter Sutherland can blather on and on but by failing to point out the huge problems we have with trade to the UK he is wasting his breath.