IN just 47 days, one of the important votes in the history of the state, the second referendum on the Lisbon treaty, will take place. And there is already cause for concern that, just like in 2008, the Yes side is sleep-walking towards another defeat.

At first glance, defeat seems improbable. Much has changed in the 14 months since the last Lisbon referendum. The economic meltdown has hit Ireland much harder than any other EU country and left many people convinced that, without the security of our membership of the eurozone, the crisis would be a whole lot worse.

Furthermore, measures secured by the government in negotiations with our EU partners seem to have to gone quite a way towards addressing voter concerns – however realistic or unrealistic those concerns were – about neutrality, abortion, workers' rights and the loss of our commissioner.

The absence in the upcoming campaign of Declan Ganley's Libertas – regarded by most observers as a major factor in the No vote last year – was seen as another advantage for Yes side.

Opinion polls in recent months have also been much more favourable for the Yes side than they were in the run-up to the first Lisbon referendum. Not only do they consistently show a clear majority in favour of the treaty, but there is a much lower percentage of 'don't knows' than there was in 2008. Polls then showed large numbers in the 'undecided' camp, the vast majority of whom plumped for the No side on polling day.

And, lastly, there was the assumption that the Yes side could not possibly run a campaign as hapless as the one it ran in the first referendum.

But the report in this newspaper today, revealing focus-group research on how voters feel about Lisbon, shows it would be the height of folly for the political establishment to take it for granted that a Yes vote is somehow inevitable.

The focus group research does not point to another No in the upcoming referendum. It confirms the results in opinion polls that the Yes side currently holds a distinct advantage.

But when the views of voters are examined in greater detail, it shows that the Yes vote is considerably softer than the No side and that the potential is there for migration from the Yes to the No camp in the final weeks of the campaign.

The No side is certainly up against it. But it has a core vote of 35% that will vote against pretty much any EU referendum. Given that it would require only another 15 percentage points to defeat the referendum, it would be extremely unwise for anybody to assume a Yes vote is guaranteed.

The fact that so many voters are angry about the sharp deterioration in their economic circumstances raises the genuine concern that they might use the referendum as a means of registering their disapproval with the government.

To be fair, it is far too early to offer a critical assessment of the Yes campaign. There would be little merit in the Yes side running its campaign flat-out in August. The main political figures are on holidays, as is much of the electorate, and the height of summer is a time when people are unlikely to be focused on such issues.

But already, just a hint of complacency about the outcome is emanating from the political establishment; this is deeply worrying and must be nipped in the bud.

The real campaign starts tomorrow fortnight and it is absolutely vital that the 'yes' side gets off to a strong start, unlike in 2008 when it appeared to be playing catch-up almost from the day that the date of the referendum was announced.

Back then, the No side controlled the agenda by raising potential problems with the treaty (in many cases erroneous ones), forcing the Yes side onto the back foot. That cannot be allowed to happen again.

While it is important that the voters are made aware of the serious implications of another No vote, the main emphasis should be on highlighting the benefits of Europe and the Lisbon treaty for Ireland.

The referendum is there to be won – that is clear from the research – but it will not be won without a fight. And nobody in the political establishment can say they haven't been put on notice.