THE threat to strike issued by gardaí has not come out of the blue. The Sunday Tribune reported six months ago that a "withdrawal of labour" was being considered by the force, but the likelihood of this happening was not taken seriously until last Monday when the Garda Representative Association (GRA) made its announcement at a press conference. The association is considering the action in response to the cuts in pay and pensions.

By the end of next week, the 12,000 rank-and-file gardaí the association represents will receive a ballot paper that poses the question, "Would you be prepared to withdraw your labour?" The answer from the majority of gardaí is likely to be a resounding yes.

A swift condemnatory response came from justice minister Dermot Ahern. Gardaí are not permitted under law to strike and those who chose this route leave themselves open to both civil and criminal legal action according to the Attorney General, warned the justice minister. "We will pursue anything within the law," Ahern said. "The people who uphold the law can't be law-breakers… no society can countenance that, no democracy can countenance that. I think people need to reflect on this. The only thing that this will do – if they were to go on strike – the only people it would help would be the criminals."

Garda commissioner Fachtna Murphy was quick to back up the minister. In a letter sent to all members of the force, he spelled out the implications of withdrawing their labour and warned gardaí it could compromise their moral authority to police the nation. He said the drastic course of action had potentially far-reaching ramifications for the relationship between the force and the community it served. He said he was aware of the difficulties, particularly financial, that many members faced – and never failed to be encouraged by their commitment. But he believed the industrial action could impact on public confidence in them as guardians and enforcers of the law, as well as jeopardise the respect and esteem in which the organisation was held.

A fraught meeting followed between the senior GRA figures and the garda commissioner where he told them he was gravely concerned over their plans to ballot for strike action and asked them to reconsider. But the GRA have remained steadfast in its view that it intends to canvass their 12,000 members to measure their appetite to strike. "We do not believe we are breaking the law by asking our members about their views," GRA president Michael O'Boyce told the Sunday Tribune. "A lot of our members are very angry. That is the message we have been receiving all around the country. This ballot will judge how angry they are and we are asking them in the privacy of their own homes and without being influenced by anyone else, to make that decision. I think it will be a clear cut decision one way or the other. I don't think it will be a hung vote. I don't want to speculate what the decision might be because I don't want to be seen to be trying to influence the vote."

And what of the damage done to the reputation of the force if the gardaí support breaking the law by striking? "I really don't know if it would give us a bad perception among the general public. After what happened in 1998 [the 'blue flu' protest that resulted in gardaí up to the rank of inspector taking organised sick leave on the same day] there was a lot of talk that it damaged our standing with the general public. But I have never met one member of the public that had that view. The country is in a situation at the moment where one could say the moral authority of the government is gone, yet they are still in power."

But surely gardaí breaking the law gives the force a bad image? "I accept that," added O'Boyce. "But what have the government done to force us into this? That is the more serious question."

It is understood that if gardaí did proceed with the drastic action of withdrawal of labour, it would be orchestrated in such a manner that sufficient numbers of gardaí would remain on duty. During the 'blue flu' campaign, a republican was shot dead by the ERU when armed men tried to rob a cash van in Wicklow. There are concerns that criminal gangs would plan activities to coincide with a garda strike and possible fallout from this is immeasurable.

The GRA is the first public service union to ballot their members. If gardaí vote in favour of supporting a withdrawal of labour, the GRA's Central Executive Committee will discuss their options. If the gardaí take the unprecedented step of striking, it will opt to do so in line with an Irish Congress of Trade Unions (Ictu) day of action. But it may never get to that point.

Under the Garda Síochána Act 2005, officers are prohibited from withdrawing their labour. Anyone found guilty of bringing about a strike could be hit with a €50,000 fine, five years in jail or both. The executive of the GRA could also face a civil action from the state for inducing their members to strike. The garda commissioner can also go the High Court to stop any proposed strike.

There is little appetite for criminal prosecutions of individual gardaí or senior GRA officials, according to sources, but civil action and a high court injunction to prevent this course of action are more likely possibilities. The Department of Justice funds the GRA to the tune of €250,000 each year. If the association persists in its current course of action, the minster could decide to withdraw this funding. But the GRA receives approximately €3m from its 12,000 members in fees each year so the loss would not be catastrophic.

The association has now sought legal advice on the wording of the ballots to be sent to members.