Dan McLaughlin - Group chief economist, Bank of Ireland

There are some signs that the global economic crisis is easing, McLaughlin believes. However, in developed western economies, it's more a case of the pace of contraction decelerating rather than any return to positive growth.

The exception to that is the UK, which should return to growth by the third quarter, McLaughlin says, adding that the US could also emerge from recession later in the year.

Any recovery in the Irish economy will be led by external events but is still a long way off. "The best you can say about Ireland is that the pace of decline has stabilised," he says.

The increase in the live register was 13,000 in May compared to 30,000 in previous months. McLaughlin is quick to stress this is certainly not a good performance, but that the rise in unemployment is not as frenetic as had been the case. The same holds for the government tax receipts, which while still in decline, have stabilised somewhat.

The consensus view of economists, accumulated by Reuters, is that the Irish economy will decline by 8.2% this year, rather than their previous prediction of 8.5%. While McLaughlin says this is small mercy, it is the first time in around two years that the consensus view is less pessimistic than the previous month.

However, he wonders about the consensus view that wages need to fall to drive an export-led recovery. The reality, McLaughlin says, is that exports are growing. "The reason Ireland is contracting is because of the massive drop in construction – not trade – activity and a fall in a consumer spending."

Asked about predictions from some commentators about Ireland going bankrupt and the IMF being called in, McLaughlin believes these were an overstatement. The situation in Ireland was bad, he says, but some of the perceptions held in the foreign media were misleading. "I don't think we were cognisant enough around the turn of the year about the need to sell the Irish story," he says. However, he says this has "largely changed now", pointing to finance minister Brian Lenihan's European roadshow.

McLaughlin says that with world economy "falling off a cliff" in the last quarter of 2008, the government, from October on, were "chasing events". However, in the last couple of months it has been "up with events".

Marc Coleman - Economics editor, Newstalk

We are "not yet" seeing signs of a global economic recovery, Coleman says, arguing that we are in for a 'W', rather than a 'V', shaped recovery. "The so-called green shoots are not a recovery, but a response to monetary stimulus which cannot last. They are a welcome end to a recession but they are not the beginning of a recovery," he says.

Coleman believes it will be another year before the global economy begins to show tentative growth of 2-3%. And it will take Ireland another six to nine months after that before we see a "similarly weak recovery" – which means no growth until early 2011.

"The key thing the government must not do is increase taxes," Coleman warns. He believes this is particularly critical because interest rates will start to rise again – after reaching historic lows – possibly as early as next year. "The burden of tax increases imposed [in the two recent budgets] is not really being felt because of lower interest rates but they will be when interest rates start to increase," he says.

And Coleman adds: "If the government cannot appreciate this from an economic point of view, it might be well advised to do so from a political point of view. No government wants to head into a general election in 2012 with rising interest rates and taxes. If that happens the June [local] elections will look like a picnic."

Alan McQuaid - Bloxham Stockbrokers

McQuaid describes himself as "less pessimistic rather than more optimistic" about Ireland's economic outlook.

"My view is that there are definitely green shoots out there." And while that is "not fantastic", McQuaid says it looks as if the UK and the US will return to growth before the year end. While Ireland is in the eurozone, it still is in many ways an "Anglo-Saxon economy", with half of indigenous exports going to the UK.

McQuaid predicts sterling will rally and could be at 80p against the euro by year end. This will help Irish exports. The dollar will also move in our favour, he says.

He believes the European Central Bank will not raise interest rates for a long time, as inflation is at zero in the eurozone. This points to a positive scenario of the UK and US economies picking up, combined with the euro falling against their currencies and a low-interest rate environment.

By the middle of next year, Ireland could be back into positive-growth territory, McQuaid says. But he warns the political situation is critical. "The danger is we overtax the ordinary worker. It becomes too much of a burden and encourages him or her to save, not spend."

In this regard, he says he is encouraged by remarks from finance minister Brian Lenihan that there is little scope for further income tax increases.

He does not believe that unemployment will now hit 17% – as many had predicted – but says it will continue to increase. Because of the jobs issue, he also feels house prices will continue to fall for the rest of the year and it will be the second quarter of next year before the market bottoms out.

McQuaid has slightly reduced his forecast for the decline in the Irish economy this year from 9% to 8.5%. And he says that "things turned pear shaped quite quickly so there is no reason why it can't happen in reverse".

Consumer confidence will be key but he says that while people are showing greater discretion, "it's not as if there is no spending going on". But he warns that the government has to be careful in the upcoming budget not to further damage that confidence.