DEMOCRACY truly is a strange and wonderful thing. Two years ago, Fianna Fáil was returned to power after a pretty uninspired five-year term when it let public expenditure get wildly out of control; oversaw the benchmarking fiasco; opted for a blatantly political decentralisation programme that was directly contrary to good planning; allowed the economy become dangerously overdependent on the construction sector – and with its leader embroiled in an enormous controversy over his personal finances.

In contrast, in five weeks' time, the current government will get the mother and father of all hidings in the local, European and by-elections after a year in which it has tried (if not always carried it out especially well) to do the right thing.

Of course, the electorate, quite understandably, believes past decisions of the current government are responsible for the disastrous state of the economy.

There can be no question that the hugely unpalatable decisions it has made since October last – removing medical cards, introducing the pension levy, increasing taxes, cutting early childcare supplement etc – have strongly added to the backlash against the government. However, the reality is that if there was a general election tomorrow and Fine Gael and Labour became the new government, there is probably no decision of the past nine months that they would reverse.

The automatic right of medical cards for the over 70s would not be returned, despite the thunderous opposition of Fine Gael and Labour deputies at the time. The public sector pension levy would not be scrapped, even though its introduction caused a surge of support for Labour at Fianna Fáil's expense. The bank guarantee scheme is opposed by Labour, but Fine Gael backed it and it's difficult to see how it could be reversed now.

It's also very likely that Nama, or some variation of it, would still be established. Labour's local election launch last week heard the populist demand that plans for "An Bord Bailout" should be dropped. But, when questioned, the party leadership admitted there was a need to "quarantine" bad loans within the banking system, which of course would result in some form of 'bailing out the banks' to recapitalise them. The need to address the huge gap between revenue and expenditure would also mean that the tax increases of the past two budgets would not only stay in place, but new property and carbon taxes would also be inevitable.

For all the crescendo of criticism directed towards the government, no one – political commentators, economists, dissident government TDs, opposition TDs – has come up with a credible course of action that is markedly different from what the government has been doing since October.

That is not to say the current government is perfect. It patently isn't. It keeps making silly mistakes that undermine its ability to sell the really big-issue decisions – the mortgage interest relief debacle being just the latest example. There is also a valid argument that, after being in power for most of the past 22 years, it would be a good thing for Fianna Fáil to spend some time on the backbenches. However, anybody who thinks that getting rid of the current government is going to result in a a significant change of direction in budgetary or economic strategy is seriously mistaken. Any responsible new government would have to take the same course of action.

Regardless of who is in government, the tax net has to be broadened and public expenditure has to come down so that at some point over the next five to seven years, the exchequer returns to a balanced budget.

There has been a lot of woolly talk from politicians and commentators – and John McGuinness was doing some of it on last week's Late Late Show – about encouraging small business, protecting jobs, showing leadership and focusing on "growing the economy instead of cutting back" etc etc. However, it took us the best part of a decade in the 1980s to realise that, in an economic crisis, these are all, at best, sideline issues. The key focus of the government – or indeed any government that replaces it – must be restoring order to the public finances, stabilising the banking system to get credit moving again and improving competitiveness.

It is important, of course, to look at improving training schemes and at targeted supports for small business. But only by tackling the above three issues can the country be in a position to benefit from the inevitable international upturn.

The only cure for the disease currently crippling the Irish economy is some particularly tough medicine. And whatever else you might say about the two Brians – Cowen and Lenihan – in the main, they haven't shied away from dishing that out in the past 12 months.

Come the elections on 5 June, we will know the full political cost of those decisions. It will be a stunning surprise if the price isn't exceptionally high for Fianna Fáil. Whether that's fair or not is largely irrelevant. The people are sovereign. If they want shot of the government that is absolutely their right. And the way things are going, that may happen sooner rather than later. Living in a democracy, thankfully, there is always an alternative government on offer. But let's not kid ourselves that there is any alternative to the kind of policies currently being implemented.