BRIAN COWEN'S reign as taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil may come under unbearable pressure after the 5 June elections.

His leadership has been under intense scrutiny in the past 48 hours since Friday's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll showed satisfaction with the government slumping to an all-time low. Labour's Eamon Gilmore has suggested that if the poll result is replicated on 5 June it will precipitate a general election.

Cowen's only hope may be that Fianna Fáil could not replace their leader again without having an election, and the fear of a backbench wipe-out may force them to cling to their leader for dear life.

The conventional wisdom in Fianna Fáil is that it would be extremely difficult for the party to choose another leader after 5 June in the way that Cowen assumed the role of taoiseach from Bertie Ahern without an election. No matter how bad the June report card is, the party cannot risk the bloodbath of a general election.

"If the public, the media and the opposition are already claiming that Brian Cowen does not have a mandate then they would surely make that claim if we appointed Cowen's successor without an election," said one insider. "There would only be about 45 TDs left if you are to go on the current polls. The backbenchers are all hoping that if they hang tight for the next 12 to 18 months there will an upturn in the economy so they are adopting a 'hang together and hang tight' philosophy."

The idea that a leadership heave against Cowen could pave the way for another cabinet minister to assume the position without an election was described as "uncharted territory", "a bit fanciful" and "a bit of a long shot" by another party source.

In recent days, Dermot Ahern has been mooted in political circles as the person to whom TDs and senators are already looking in the event of an elections meltdown. Bookmaker Paddy Power quoted the Dundalk man as the 11/8 favourite to be the next Fianna Fáil leader, with Micheál Martin (9/4), Brian Lenihan (10/3) and Mary Hanafin (8/1) coming in behind him.

While Ahern has never expressed any significant drive to become leader, he was publicly critical of the manner in which Brian Cowen assumed the job last year. Ahern was furious about the way Bertie Ahern chose Cowen as 'the anointed one'. It is understood he felt Bertie Ahern should not have publicly declared who his preferred successor was and the party should have at least gone through the process of a leadership vote.

Ahern, a former solicitor, is understood to be enjoying the challenges of his role as justice minister but the former Fianna Fáil chief whip's blunt political 'street-fighter' image has won him a lot of admirers in the party.

"Dermot Ahern is decisive. He is a no-bullshit merchant and we need that," one member of the parliamentary party said.

He added that he would prefer to see Ahern in the role than the other likely successor: "Micheál Martin's decision-making ability is known to be terrible and that is not what we need at the moment."

Others suggest Martin could carry out all 'front of house duties' as taoiseach and leave Brian Lenihan making the hard decisions as finance minister.

Hanafin has an outside chance, although her star has risen in the past year as the performance of tánaiste Mary Coughlan, the other Fianna Fáil woman in cabinet, has been criticised.

"I think none of the current ministers will put pressure on the parliamentary party until their own job is in trouble," said one member of the parliamentary party. "We are bracing ourselves for poor results. But if you look at the local elections we cannot collapse much more in a lot of areas. We lost 80 council seats in 2004 so we can't lose many more. We are already nearly wiped out in cities, with only one councillor in Waterford, two in Limerick and three in Galway so things can't get much worse."

Love him or hate him, Bertie Ahern had the political skill to turn Fianna Fáil's fortunes around after the 2004 local election drubbing. The question remains: Has Cowen got the political skills to get him out of his cul-de-sac?