BERTIE Ahern hasn't gone away you know. He may no longer be taoiseach or leader of Fianna Fáil, but the selection of big brother Maurice for the up-coming by-election shows Ahern and the Drumcondra Mafia still call the shots in the party in Dublin Central.

Councillor Mary Fitzpatrick, who was so famously squeezed out by Ahern's organisation in the last general election, would have been FF headquarters' choice to contest the by-election. Young, female, feisty and living in the heart of the constituency, she is definitely one for the future for the party.

Instead though, to the surprise of nobody who attended the convention in the Skylon Hotel last Wednesday week, the local organisation opted for a septuagenarian male who lives some miles from Dublin Central. However, despite Fitzpatrick's qualities, there is little question that in choosing Ahern, Fianna Fáil has a better chance of causing a massive upset and winning a seat.

The past 27 years have shown us that government candidates don't win by-elections, and certainly not during a brutal recession for which much of the electorate squarely blames the government.

But if any organisation can buck that trend, it is Bertie Ahern's Drumcondra organisation, without question the most formidable electoral machine in the history of the state. Ahern has topped the poll and exceeded the quota in every general election he has fought in Dublin Central. In the last general election, Fianna Fáil got nearly 45% of the first-preference vote in the constituency, over three times the level of support of any rival party or organisation.

The Drumcondra Mafia succeeded in getting Ahern's close ally, Cyprian Brady, elected, despite Brady getting just 939 first-preference votes. It's a track record that suggests that regardless of how unpopular Fianna Fáil is – and it is extremely unpopular – it would be folly to write off Maurice Ahern's prospects.

That is not to say he will win the seat – in all probability it will be too much even for Ahern's legendary organisation to deliver – just that he cannot be entirely ruled out.

The word on the ground in Dublin Central is that Maurice is not going down badly on the doorstep. Labour's Ivana Bacik has stated that the by-election will be the people's verdict on Ahern's legacy in Dublin Central, but perhaps she should be careful what she wishes for – there may be enough people in the constituency who think the legacy isn't a bad one.

The Ahern camp was specialising in political strategy when Bacik was still in primary school and it's interesting that it has chosen, on Maurice's posters, to put the Ahern name in big, block capital letters, alongside a pretty prominent "Fianna Fáil". In comparison, the photo of Maurice is relatively small. It clearly thinks the Ahern – and to a lesser extent the Fianna Fáil – branding is still an asset in Dublin Central.

The other concern for the opposition is that it is easier to think of reasons why each of the opposition candidates won't, rather than will, win. Dublin Central is a very community-oriented constituency, so while Labour looks strong there, it remains to be seen how it will take to a candidate who doesn't have roots in the area.

Maureen O'Sullivan, the Gregory camp candidate, cannot be ruled out, but she has no electoral track record. Christy Burke of Sinn Féin has very strong roots in Dublin Central and has a decent electoral track record. He will poll well but it's hard to see him winning enough votes to be still standing come the final count.

Pascal Donohoe of Fine Gael has worked his socks off in the constituency in recent years and is personable and engaging. He is probably still the front runner – marginally ahead of Bacik and O'Sullivan – but Dublin Central is most certainly not Dublin South. It was 1997 when Fine Gael last won a seat there and it will be some achievement by Donohoe if he pulls it off next month, particularly in the wake of Friday's poll showing FG at 38% nationally.

Which brings us back to Maurice. If he were to win the seat it would be the biggest achievement ever for the Drumcondra Mafia – bigger than the eclipsing of George Colley in the early 1980s; bigger than topping the poll and exceeding the quota in nine consecutive general elections; bigger than the coup of delivering Cyprian to the Dáil with a minuscule first-preference vote.

The size of the challenge means it probably won't happen. It's very possible that Ahern will get more first-preference votes than any other candidate, but the big problem will be attracting enough transfers to get over the line.

The other question is whether Ahern pulling off a massive upset in Dublin Central would really be in Brian Cowen's interest. Imagine a scenario where Fianna Fáil loses 50 or 60 council seats, is down to two or three European seats, but Ahern somehow defies the odds to win Dublin Central.

It would send out a powerful signal that Fianna Fáil wouldn't be in the mess it's in at the moment if Bertie were still at the helm. And that would certainly raise more questions about Cowen's leadership than if Fianna Fáil falls short in Dublin Central.

And Bertie Ahern certainly wouldn't want that – would he?

scoleman@tribune.ie