FINE Gael and Labour will comfortably win the next general election. That point has been made many times in this column. But there are growing grounds for arguing that, in the national interest, it would be better if that general election did not come before 2011.

It is practically inarguable that Fianna Fáil has been in power too long. A healthy democracy requires more than a one-party state. And, with Fianna Fáil governing, largely uninterrupted, for close to 23 years, it's time for Fine Gael and Labour to have their turn, in the process bringing new energy and new ideas to the cabinet table.

But a little like St Augustine's 'Lord make me chaste but not yet', watching the events of last week it might well be better if that time did not come for another year or two.

Fine Gael and Labour's trenchant opposition to cuts in child benefit and the cancellation of the Christmas bonus for social-welfare recipients suggests they have still to acquire the necessary stomach for what has to be done to sort out the public finances.

And were there a general election next month, there must be real doubts as to whether or not they would be willing to make the tough decisions on forming a government.

That is largely understandable. The upcoming budget and the one to follow it next year will be painful, seriously painful. But the alternative to decisive action is even tougher pain further down the line that will hit the marginalised even further.

While the argument has been made that any new incoming government would have a fresh mandate from the people to do what has be done, in practice the opposite would be the case. A government elected with more than half the popular vote – as Fine Gael and Labour combined surely would be – would be almost hamstrung by that popularity.

Every tough decision they made would see that support seeping away and the understandable temptation would be to avoid or long-finger those tough decisions.

In contrast, the current Fianna Fáil-led government doesn't need to worry about being popular. That bird has already flown. Fianna Fáil is at support levels that were unimaginable even 12 months ago. Courting popularity simply cannot work. The party's only chance of salvaging anything from the current wreckage is to make a virtue out of making the really hard decisions. If it takes the tough decisions and the economy slowly starts to turn around, then there is a chance that Fianna Fáil will get some credit for that. It won't be enough to win a general election, but it could be the difference between losing 40 or 15 seats.

The point has been made in some quarters that Ireland needs a benevolent dictator to guide it through the current crisis. But we currently have the closest thing to that a democracy can have – a government that has gone beyond worrying about winning the next election. The utterances and body language of Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan, especially since the Dáil's return in September, have been quite clear: 'We're going to do what has to be done, regardless of the political consequences'. They have no other choice.

Over the coming weeks, the government will put it up to the opposition to come up with their alternative plans for restoring order to the public finances. If the past few days are anything to go by, the opposition will be found wanting.

Fine Gael's insistence that it would leave child benefit untouched will go down well with middle-class families. But it is simply not credible. If it accepts that €4bn in savings are required and rules out tax increases, then at least €1bn of the cutbacks will have to come in social welfare. How that can be achieved without touching child benefit – one of the few social-welfare benefits that is given to the very richest in society at the same rate as the very poorest – beggars belief.

Labour also accepts the need for €4bn in savings. But it will not cut social welfare and it has joined the protest marches against the cuts in public sector pay. So where will it get €4bn from? The party has been talking of potential annual savings of €2bn from cutting back on tax reliefs. But the reality is that the recent Commission on Taxation has pointed to possible savings of a decidedly more modest €327m in this area.

But even though the opposition's plans for €4bn savings will be far from water-tight, the political reality is that it won't damage their standings in the opinion polls. The huge anger that will be caused by government cuts in welfare, child benefit, public-sector pay etc, etc, will in all likelihood push their ratings up further.

To be fair, the opposition parties are simply doing what opposition parties do – courting popularity. Fianna Fáil would be doing it, with bells on, if it was in that position right now. But with a budget deficit of around €25bn, we simply can't afford a government that does the same thing.

Fine Gael and Labour's time will come – no question – and when it does, they have the personnel to do a good job. But it would be better for all concerned if that time isn't until sometime after two more tough budgets are introduced.

scoleman@tribune.ie