THIERRY Henry's infamous "hand of frog" goal will cost Irish businesses tens of millions of euro this summer and, according to some commentators, a crucial jump-start to the economy.

It is a matter of greater importance than mere sportsmanship; Ireland's controversial exit from the race to South Africa 2010 has robbed the country of a vitally important "feelgood factor" that could have contributed massively to economic recovery.

Aside from profits to Irish companies and an increase in crucial consumer spending, the potential for job creation to deal with demand has also been eradicated.

Thousands of official kits will not be sold, thousands of green army fans will remain in Ireland rather than travelling with Irish tour operators, the pubs won't be packed to the rafters and the countless knock-on consumer spending opportunities will simply not materialise.

"People joke about it but there is a little bit of accuracy that Italia '90 kicked off the Celtic Tiger in terms of the feelgood factor," said Mark Fielding, chief executive of the Irish Small and Medium Enterprise (Isme) association.

"Certainly it would have helped national morale and confidence. There will not be the spend that was there in terms of parties and people buying kits and all that.

"At the moment we have the propensity to save and that has doubled on a year ago. It's not because people are being very good citizens, it's because they are terrified they will be out of a job in the morning."

According to Fielding, the amount of people leaving their homes and filling pubs and hotels to watch the game could have been as much as 10 times the current level.

"Definitely there would have been [a surge in spending] and the vintners would certainly have got a spike in the matches," he said.

"People will still go to the pubs to watch the games but it would have been more if Ireland was there."

It is a sentiment certainly shared by publicans. For Paul Fields, a manager at the Submarine Bar in Crumlin – famed for its Ireland soccer nights – Henry's goal will not just mean a lack of profit but a lack of employment.

"We are probably going to have to let a couple of staff go and put them on flexi-time," he said.

"That wouldn't have been the case [with qualification]. We could have said to them after Christmas, look the World Cup is on in the summer, don't make any plans. But now there is nothing on the horizon."

For pubs like the Submarine, the difference in the level of business on offer with World Cup qualification is dramatic.

The bar estimates that up to four times the regular number of customers would have packed the bar if the Irish team were playing in next summer's finals.

"For the France game the place was hopping," said Fields.

"I can only imagine if we got through what the place would have been like. To see the pub that busy in this day and age is good for business."

Padraig Cribben, chief executive of the Vintners' Federation of Ireland (VFI), said qualification for the World Cup would have offered a much-needed boost to the pub industry which has suffered dramatically in poor economic conditions.

"More significant is the uplift in atmosphere and general feelgood factor that our participation would have meant for the country as a whole," he said.

"While the actual revenue will be lost by our industry and others, the confidence that would have been generated by our qualification is immeasurable and it is a real shame that we won't now benefit from that."

There will also be ramifications for jobs and profits in the travel industry. Had Ireland gone through, the phones would already be ringing manically in the offices of tour operators tasked with transporting the legions of dedicated supporters to the southern tip of Africa.

"We would have brought a couple of thousand people as the official agent of the FAI," said Neil Horgan, managing director of Abbey Travel, who says the notorious French handball will have cost his company hundreds of thousands of euro.

"We have lost out on a huge windfall in a year where it's badly needed in the travel business," he said.

Packages for South Africa would have cost in the region of €2,000 and there would be no lack of uptake. "We would have got 5,000 tickets for our game and they would have all sold, plus the ones that people would have sourced themselves. You could have had up to 7,500 Irish at each game. It's desperately sad for football.

"We would have had our staff who are on three-day weeks on five-day weeks to keep up with demand, that is for certain and that would have been effective immediately.

"People would have begun phoning for packages straight away. We would have had to clean our plate to deal with the level of calls and the amount of people coming into the shop."

The agency is still putting packages together for the World Cup and many people travelling to South Africa this summer will take match tickets as part of their holiday. But this will constitute only a fraction of the activity that could have been.

"There will be Irish in South Africa but they will be supporting anyone but the English and the French," said Horgan.

Paddy Power bookmaker says his business will miss out on around €10m from fans placing bets solely on the Irish team.

"Even with Ireland not there, the World Cup is going to be a huge event and people will have massive interest in it," said Power.

"But in terms of opportunities missed it will definitely have an impact on people betting on Ireland, following their hearts.

"There could be a potential of maybe a €10m turnover on Ireland games that we won't get now. It's a shame that we won't have as much hype as we normally would.

"It would be like the Grand National; it's an event and people would have come in just because it's an event. ­That is what we will lose out on but from a betting perspective, it's not half as bad as for other industries."