THE odds in the bookies might not reflect it but make no mistake the chances of the Fianna Fáil-Green coalition running its full term have increased considerably over the past couple of weeks.

At the start of September, this column opined that the government's chances of making it to Christmas could only be regarded as 50-50.

But now three of the four massive hurdles the coalition faced then have been cleared with some comfort and, suddenly, the final jump – the budget on 9 December – is not looking anywhere near as daunting.

The government is still in the mire but there was just the tiniest hint of a pep in the steps of Fianna Fáil TDs last week. With the budget only a few weeks away, it mightn't last long. But, for now at least, there are grounds for something other than the total pessimism which has engulfed government TDs over the past 12 months.

It certainly hasn't been easy with the John O'Donoghue affair and the ongoing Fás nightmare but, those not insignificant matters notwithstanding, it actually hasn't been a bad few weeks for the government.

Helped by the intervention of a couple of ex-Fine Gael leaders, it won the Nama debate hands-down. And, once it becomes law, just watch how fast the previously all-encompassing Nama issue disappears off the political agenda.

Then there was the lifting of the double-bladed Sword of Damocles that was hanging over the coalition in the shape of the Lisbon referendum and the renegotiation of the programme for government.

The Lisbon victory was a massive boost for Cowen, not least because if the referendum had been defeated his position could quickly have become untenable. But psychologically it was also important because it ended a seemingly endless run of setbacks he had had to endure since the first Lisbon vote.

The successful renegotiation of the programme for government between the two parties, meanwhile, has done more than ensure that the coalition didn't collapse last week. It has effectively tied in the Greens for the budget and the huge €3.75bn in cutbacks that have to be implemented. Having signed up for another two and a half years, winning some decent concessions in the process, the Greens cannot credibly walk away five weeks later.

That means the only thing that will bring down the government during the budget votes is Fianna Fáil backbenchers and the view around Leinster House is that this is unlikely to happen.

It would be foolish to underestimate the furore that inevitably awaits the government once it delivers those massive cutbacks. The level of anger will be unprecedented and government TDs will come under enormous pressure to oppose the budget. Nobody can say for certain what will happen but the resolve to hang tough – as opposed to hanging separately – seems to have strengthened, albeit with the real test still to come.

Certainly though, the last couple of weeks have demonstrated that it would be unwise to write off Fianna Fáil. The party's key strength over the past 80 years has been winning and holding onto power. At the very least, the latter attribute is still alive and kicking. In retrospect, there was never the slightest chance that the Greens wouldn't get a programme that they could sell to their members. Fianna Fáil, the arch pragmatists, did what had to be done. And despite some of the ridiculous criticism of the Greens over the past week, the smaller coalition played its hand pretty well also.

Brian Cowen, however, must have been a relieved man last Saturday evening when news of the Green vote came through. The word from those who observe the Taoiseach up close is that he is far more focused and relaxed. They say he has reached the point where he is comfortable about doing what has to be done – in terms of delivering the tough economic medicine – and taking the political consequences of that.

If that is the case, he will be a more dangerous foe to Fine Gael and Labour than heretofore. In the short term, the opposition can and will continue to make political capital out of opposing cutbacks, particularly among public-sector voters. Eamon Gilmore, in particular, has shown he is particularly adept at taking a populist approach. Given there remains huge resistance among the public to the need to bridge the €20bn gap between revenue and spending, that will continue to pay political dividends in the short term.

However, if the government can last into 2011 and beyond, there is a chance that by then the economy will have started to recover. In that scenario, support for the government will increase – no question. There will surely, however, be a ceiling on that potential increase in support: the level of pain involved in the cutbacks and the anger about the mistakes of the past should see to that. But if there is time for it to happen, an economy-induced swing back to the coalition could yet prove enough to limit seat losses to well below the levels many are envisaging.

Regardless of what happens, the next election should still be Fine Gael and Labour's on a plate. But, after the past couple of weeks, the odds of 11-8 on that election happening next year don't look particularly appealing. Bearing in mind the old adage about time being a great healer, the government will be hoping that for once the bookies have it wrong.

scoleman@tribune.ie