THE next general election is a done deal... isn't it? For the past year, the conventional wisdom in the Dáil and among political commentators has been that Fine Gael and Labour will form the next government and that Fianna Fáil is, at best, engaged in a damage limitation exercise between now and the next election.

Until recently, everything has pointed to such an outcome. Fianna Fáil's record low and Fine Gael's unprecedented lead in the polls; the dire personal ratings of Taoiseach Brian Cowen; the economic meltdown; the need for seriously painful cutbacks and tax increases in order to rescue the public finances; the government's alienation of public sector workers after two sets of pay cuts.

Add in the long history, going back to the 1950s, of governments failing to get re-elected during times of recession and the conclusion is that the current administration is like the Fine Gael-Labour coalition of the mid 1980s and the Labour Party in the mid 1990s – heading inexorably towards a general election hiding.

But, in the wake of George Lee's hugely damaging departure from Fine Gael and two opinion polls showing a small recovery in support for Fianna Fáil, have we all been too quick to write off a party that has traditionally been streets ahead of its rivals when it comes to winning general elections? With perhaps two-and-a-half years to go to a general election – by which stage the economy is predicted by economists to be in recovery – the descriptions of Enda Kenny as taoiseach-in-waiting suddenly look premature.

Even before the stunning development with Lee, there were some signs that Fianna Fáil had hit the bottom and was embarking on a process of rehabilitation. The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll of two weekends ago must have caused a flutter of nerves in Fine Gael headquarters.

It showed the main opposition party comfortably remaining as the largest party at 34%. But the gap between it and Fianna Fáil had almost halved, with Fianna Fáil rising four points to 27%, 10 points ahead of Labour at 17%. Yesterday's Irish Independent poll showed a remarkably similar result.

Of course, it shows how desperate the situation has become for Fianna Fáil that the party was taking solace from being at 27% – not that long ago unimaginable territory for the Soldiers of Destiny. And if this result was replicated in a general election, Fine Gael and Labour would win a huge majority and Fianna Fáil would be down to little more than 50 seats.

But given the severity of the budget, it was surprising to see Fianna Fáil moving in the right direction. A replication of this swing to Fianna Fáil over the coming months would see the two main parties neck and neck in the polls.

While the view of Lee's actions within Leinster House is scathing, there is no question that, rightly or wrongly, a percentage of the electorate will see it as the Fine Gael establishment frustrating a noble effort to shake up politics and – to use Lee-speak – 'save the economy'. That has to have an impact on Fine Gael's poll ratings, even if it is just a short-term phenomenon.

Hurdles

So is it game on? It depends on whom you talk to in the world of politics. Some veteran poll watchers believe you write off Fianna Fáil at your peril. "The party has got through 2009, an unbelievably tough year, with some huge hurdles and has bought itself some time until 2012. Time is a great healer. There's [potentially] two-and-a-half years to go to the next election. That's a long time," said one expert.

"Britain is always a great barometer for Irish politics. The parallels have been there since 1997. You had Blair and Ahern both winning three elections; both leaving under a cloud; succeeded by their number two who proceeded to have bad starts. But look at the UK now. A year ago the Tories had the election won. But as it comes close to the election, people are getting jittery about them and an untried leader in Cameron. It could be the same thing here," he added.

So, maintaining the UK comparison, is Enda Kenny in danger of becoming another Neil Kinnock, a prime minister-in-waiting for years only to have the prize snatched from him at the last gasp? His recent very poor performances on The Late Late Show and on Newstalk had caused serious unease in the party even before Lee's bombshell.

Yesterday's poll in the Irish Independent, in which his popularity fell again, will have done nothing to ease those worries. His personal ratings show that he certainly has not convinced the electorate, and while Cowen is hardly an asset to Fianna Fáil at the moment, Kenny would be vulnerable to attack from the government parties in the run-up to a general election.

That's assuming of course that he gets to the next general election as leader, which is still open to question despite the public backing of the front and back benches last week.

The good news for Fine Gael is that whatever about the impact the polls might have on Kenny's leadership, it would take an extraordinary improvement in Fianna Fáil's ratings and decline in Fine Gael's to deny the main opposition party its first election victory in three decades.

Senior Fine Gael figures concede that if the Dáil runs until 2012 then "anything is possible". But they are confident that the recent poll result is not the beginning of a trend. And while it's been a bad week for Fine Gael, plenty of potentially bad weeks lie ahead for the government.

"There was always going to be a dead cat bounce for Fianna Fáil. Governments always get a lift in January [with the Dáil not sitting] and they actually showed in the budget for the first time a willingness to govern. But as unemployment continues to rise and people see that the economy won't bounce back in the way they hoped and interest rates increase [it will halt any turn in the government's poll ratings]. Then you have next December's budget in which you'll have tax increases," one high-profile Fine Gael deputy said.

Downhill

It's a view that, up until last week at least, had been shared by some in the upper echelons of Fianna Fáil. One senior government politician privately told the Sunday Tribune that he feared the recent rise in the polls was a "blip", adding: "I just can't see a revival taking place. It was a quiet start to the year, with the Dáil not sitting and the North taking centre stage. But unemployment will continue to rise and you have the banks to come. It will be all downhill from here. You also have the next budget which will see tax increases and spending cuts of €2bn. Tax increases at a time when interest rates are starting to go up; that's a fatal combination. I just can't see any other result [than a Fine Gael-Labour government after the next general election]".

Asked if Kenny's recent poor media performances had given him any hope, he replied bluntly. "It's about the only hope we have but he [Kenny] is going to get there by default."

But those comments were made before Lee's departure, which will have given a serious boost to morale within Fianna Fáil. For now at least, Fine Gael's misfortune will strengthen the argument of those in Fianna Fáil who, while acknowledging that history and the odds are stacked against them, refuse to concede the next election. They point to the strong performances of the likes of Brian Lenihan, Dermot Ahern, Mary Hanafin, Willie O'Dea and Batt O'Keeffe – along with the recent improvement shown by Cowen himself – and insist that this will begin to count.

It's a fair bet that Fianna Fáil will be back at 30%-plus by the time the next general election comes along, particularly if the economy is back in growth mode. It may even get back ahead of Fine Gael. But the ongoing fall-out from the economic, fiscal and banking crisis means that getting back to the level of support required to be in a position to lead the next government – which is close to Fine Gael and Labour's combined support levels – looks a tall order.

Professor of politics at Dublin City University Gary Murphy believes Fianna Fáil will be higher than in the current polls come the next election but is "too far down" to get back to where it needs to be to lead the next government. The party is in particular trouble with working-class and public sector voters, who have always supported Fianna Fáil in large numbers, he says. The reality, as pointed out by Murphy, is that Fine Gael and Labour need to only gain a dozen seats from their 2007 performance to take power – surely a straightforward task in the current circumstances, even without the star appeal of George Lee. "The numbers are tough for Fianna Fáil," is Murphy's verdict.

It's true that, in the words of one veteran election analyst, "You can't write off Fianna Fáil; they're like Kerry in the football." But even Kerry has its periods of drought. For Kerry football 1987 to 1997, read – in all probability – Fianna Fáil in 2010.