ENDA Kenny's leadership of Fine Gael came very close to a challenge last week in the wake of George Lee's shock resignation, and his future in the job hangs on opinion poll results between now and the summer, party insiders say.
Soundings were taken on Monday by Fine Gael TDs – both front bench and back bench – on the level of support for deputy leader Richard Bruton.
"Certainly people were talking about whether there was a need to change the leader," one senior deputy admitted, although he insisted it was not a majority of TDs.
A challenge did not materialise because Bruton was not willing to move against the leader; there were fears it would split the party; and – most importantly – there was a complete lack of sympathy within the party for Lee's complaints.
"We didn't want George to be the catalyst," one TD said.
"George Lee actually saved Enda, for the time being," was the blunter verdict of another deputy who said discontent had been building in the party since Kenny's disastrous Late Late Show appearance.
Kenny also moved to shore up his position, holding meetings with TDs who might be regarded as being in the dissident camp. By Tuesday the mood had shifted to anger towards Lee and a determination that he would not influence the future direction of the party.
Despite the public show of unity emerging from the subsequent front bench and parliamentary party meetings, Fine Gael figures say privately that, in the hours after Lee's announcement, it was a "close-run thing" as to whether a serious challenge would emerge. There was also criticism of the leader from senior figures at that front-bench gathering.
Nerves will have been settled within the party by yesterday's opinion poll showing Fine Gael retaining a comfortable lead over Fianna Fáil. Kenny also impressed in media performances last week.
"Enda responded well. There's no-one out gunning for him," one senior figure said.
However, Fine Gael TDs say the leadership will come back on the agenda if there is any slippage in the party's ratings between now and the summer; if Kenny's own personal approval ratings drop below 20%; or if there is any repeat of his Late Late Show performance.
"If that happens, Richard Bruton will be left with no option but to challenge him," one said.
There is optimism in the front bench that last week could be a turning point for Kenny, with a new sharper edge emerging, and a belief that the majority of the parliamentary party is behind him. But others are less convinced and say everything hinges on the polls and Kenny's performance over the next four months.